Recently, the main 1301 methanol contract continued to oscillate around 2800 yuan. In the situation where the contradiction between supply and demand has gradually emerged and the cost support has weakened, the probability of the methanol in the afternoon is likely to return to weakness.
First, the downward pressure on coal prices, cost support weakened domestic coal sales since June has continued to decline. Wind data shows that coal sales in August were 312 million tons, a decrease of 23 million tons from June. As the domestic economic outlook is still uncertain, the major coal-fired industries will hardly see significant improvements in their short-term operating conditions. In the context of shrinking demand, coal production remains high. According to the statistics of the Industrial Association, from January to August, the cumulative output of 2.57 billion tons was completed, an increase of 4.4% year-on-year. In the medium to long term, the downward pressure on domestic coal prices will be greater, and the cost support for methanol will be weakened.
Second, the rapid expansion of production capacity, adequate supply of methanol Although the recent major northwestern methanol production plant is still in production, but the methanol market is adequate. National Bureau of Statistics data show that in August 2012, China's methanol production was 2,217,400 tons, an increase of 12.51% over the previous month and an increase of 30.73% over the same period of last year; from January to August, the cumulative output was 1,74.487 million tons, an increase of 19.52% over the same period of last year. At the same time, the import of methanol has increased significantly due to the sharp rise in Iranian supplies. Customs data show that in August, China imported about 426,600 tons of methanol, a substantial increase from the previous month 165,400 tons, of which Iranian sources of about 152,300 tons, an increase of 105,600 tons last month. The sharp rebound in import volume has kept methanol inventory at the domestic port area at a relatively high level. As of September 20, the East China Port inventory at the benchmark delivery point of methanol was approximately 443,000 tons, which was approximately 32.2% higher than the same period of last year and was at a historically high level.
In addition, China's methanol industry is at the peak of rapid growth in production capacity. According to statistics from Anxun, the expansion capacity of methanol in the fourth quarter of 2012 was approximately 2 million tons, of which 1.8 million tons of coal-to-methanol production capacity was distributed in Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang; The furnace gas methanol production capacity is 200,000 tons, which is distributed in the Shanxi area.
Third, after the completion of stocking, the recovery of downstream demand was approaching double-end. The pre-holiday stocking work of downstream companies was basically completed, and the demand was again weak, and the production of methanol producers and traders decreased.
Formaldehyde, the recent Shandong, Henan and other regions affected by the autumn harvest, formaldehyde business start-up load significantly reduced, and the "golden nine silver ten" season, the real estate market is less than expected, formaldehyde downstream products methylal, sheet, water reducing agent sales are not effective improve.
In terms of acetic acid, production facilities of acetic acid companies in East China and Central China have been frequently stopped since September, and the operating rate of enterprises has continued to decline. According to statistics from the National Methanol Corporation, as of the September 21st week, the rate of start-ups for acetic acid companies was 44%, a drop of 20 percentage points from the beginning of the month. In the case of tight supply of acetic acid, in order to make up for domestic demand for acetic acid, the volume of acetic acid exports has dropped significantly. Bureau of Statistics data show that in July and August, the export volume of acetic acid was 16,100 tons and 10,200 tons, which was a significant drop from the export volume of 123,800 tons in June. It can be seen from this that acetic acid companies have not significantly increased their consumption of methanol.
In terms of dimethyl ether, downstream companies in the north have finished stocking and the current procurement enthusiasm has been significantly reduced. Some dimethyl ether manufacturers are under pressure to lose pressure and are prepared to take measures such as production cuts and stoppages to ease supply pressure; regulatory agencies in the south have mixed liquefied gas with dimethyldiacetate. The monitoring of ether increased, and the purchase of downstream companies was insufficient.
As a whole, the post-holiday downstream products are more likely to return to a weak state, and the demand for methanol is limited.
To sum up, under the background of fundamentals, methanol will return to the weak pattern.
First, the downward pressure on coal prices, cost support weakened domestic coal sales since June has continued to decline. Wind data shows that coal sales in August were 312 million tons, a decrease of 23 million tons from June. As the domestic economic outlook is still uncertain, the major coal-fired industries will hardly see significant improvements in their short-term operating conditions. In the context of shrinking demand, coal production remains high. According to the statistics of the Industrial Association, from January to August, the cumulative output of 2.57 billion tons was completed, an increase of 4.4% year-on-year. In the medium to long term, the downward pressure on domestic coal prices will be greater, and the cost support for methanol will be weakened.
Second, the rapid expansion of production capacity, adequate supply of methanol Although the recent major northwestern methanol production plant is still in production, but the methanol market is adequate. National Bureau of Statistics data show that in August 2012, China's methanol production was 2,217,400 tons, an increase of 12.51% over the previous month and an increase of 30.73% over the same period of last year; from January to August, the cumulative output was 1,74.487 million tons, an increase of 19.52% over the same period of last year. At the same time, the import of methanol has increased significantly due to the sharp rise in Iranian supplies. Customs data show that in August, China imported about 426,600 tons of methanol, a substantial increase from the previous month 165,400 tons, of which Iranian sources of about 152,300 tons, an increase of 105,600 tons last month. The sharp rebound in import volume has kept methanol inventory at the domestic port area at a relatively high level. As of September 20, the East China Port inventory at the benchmark delivery point of methanol was approximately 443,000 tons, which was approximately 32.2% higher than the same period of last year and was at a historically high level.
In addition, China's methanol industry is at the peak of rapid growth in production capacity. According to statistics from Anxun, the expansion capacity of methanol in the fourth quarter of 2012 was approximately 2 million tons, of which 1.8 million tons of coal-to-methanol production capacity was distributed in Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang; The furnace gas methanol production capacity is 200,000 tons, which is distributed in the Shanxi area.
Third, after the completion of stocking, the recovery of downstream demand was approaching double-end. The pre-holiday stocking work of downstream companies was basically completed, and the demand was again weak, and the production of methanol producers and traders decreased.
Formaldehyde, the recent Shandong, Henan and other regions affected by the autumn harvest, formaldehyde business start-up load significantly reduced, and the "golden nine silver ten" season, the real estate market is less than expected, formaldehyde downstream products methylal, sheet, water reducing agent sales are not effective improve.
In terms of acetic acid, production facilities of acetic acid companies in East China and Central China have been frequently stopped since September, and the operating rate of enterprises has continued to decline. According to statistics from the National Methanol Corporation, as of the September 21st week, the rate of start-ups for acetic acid companies was 44%, a drop of 20 percentage points from the beginning of the month. In the case of tight supply of acetic acid, in order to make up for domestic demand for acetic acid, the volume of acetic acid exports has dropped significantly. Bureau of Statistics data show that in July and August, the export volume of acetic acid was 16,100 tons and 10,200 tons, which was a significant drop from the export volume of 123,800 tons in June. It can be seen from this that acetic acid companies have not significantly increased their consumption of methanol.
In terms of dimethyl ether, downstream companies in the north have finished stocking and the current procurement enthusiasm has been significantly reduced. Some dimethyl ether manufacturers are under pressure to lose pressure and are prepared to take measures such as production cuts and stoppages to ease supply pressure; regulatory agencies in the south have mixed liquefied gas with dimethyldiacetate. The monitoring of ether increased, and the purchase of downstream companies was insufficient.
As a whole, the post-holiday downstream products are more likely to return to a weak state, and the demand for methanol is limited.
To sum up, under the background of fundamentals, methanol will return to the weak pattern.
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