Aluminum and zinc continued weak waiting to wait for emotional repair

According to the bulk non-ferrous net reprint:

1. China's macroeconomic operation: The downward pressure on China's economy has eased slightly, the growth rate of investment in fixed assets has continued to fall, the growth rate of infrastructure has remained stable, and the real estate market has become fragmented. The Caixin PMI data for July shows that the downward pressure on China's economy remains large.

2. China's macroeconomic policy orientation: In March 2014, the State Council pointed out that it is necessary to stabilize economic operations within a reasonable range. On June 16th, the central bank again targeted downwards. The central bank refinanced the country with a refinance of 1 trillion yuan through PSL. The government began to vigorously rescue the market. On November 21, the central bank announced a rate cut. On February 4, the central bank lowered its target. On February 28, the central bank cut interest rates again. On April 19, the central bank cut sharply. On April 30, the Politburo meeting set steady growth. On June 27, the central bank lowered its interest rate. On August 25, the Central Bank lowered its interest rate.

3. Main reasons and constraints for the operation of aluminum and zinc: The rebound of aluminum and zinc prices in the previous period was mainly caused by supply constraints, and China's policy of stable growth and post-phase policy may be expected to increase. The recent decline in the price of aluminum and zinc is mainly due to the expected changes in steady growth and changes in the expectations of the Fed’s rate hike. The policy failed to land, and the downstream demand for aluminum and zinc was weak.

5, aluminum spot price: August 26, Shanghai spot trading concentration 11740-11770 yuan / ton, discount 100 to discount 80 yuan / ton, Wuxi spot transactions concentrated 11750-11780 yuan / ton, Hangzhou spot transactions 11740-11770 Yuan / ton. Before 11 o'clock, spot traders quoted prices were at the low end of the price of around 11,740-11,750 yuan/ton, and after eleven o'clock, the quotation gradually went over 11760-11770 yuan/ton, and the spread between today's current month and the next month's bill was between 10-20. Yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the willingness of the holders to ship was still positive. The market's circulation of aluminum ingots remained stable. Downstream companies went into the market at low prices, boosting overall transaction activity slightly.

6, zinc spot price: August 26, the market 0 # zinc mainstream transactions 14730-14830 yuan / ton, on the Shanghai zinc main 1510 contract premium of 280 ~ 380 yuan / ton, 1 # zinc turnover of 14650 ~ 14670 yuan / Near the ton, imported zinc is reported to be around 100 liters of flat water. Shanghai zinc main opened at 14,500 yuan / ton, low to 14,405 yuan / ton, to close at 14,475 yuan / ton. Domestic sources of goods are gradually increasing, absolute prices are at a low level, premiums are slowly falling, the spreads between domestic brands are narrowing, and the spreads between imports and domestic products are maintained. The morning trade was unchanged from yesterday.

summary

Fed rate hike expectations weakened, durable goods orders were better than expected, US stocks rebounded, risk aversion weakened, investors’ preference for gold fell, and preference for the US dollar rose. Commodities have entered a period of shock and bottoming out. China’s economic policies have become more and more active and the real economy has improved marginally, but there is limited room for improvement. The downstream demand for aluminum and zinc is sluggish, but the price action is insufficient. Strategically, continue to follow the turbulent thinking.