Abstract Since 2017, with the official announcement of PV subsidy price, the prospects of the PV market continue to stabilize. China's PV industry enterprises are full of confidence in the 2017 market, the relevant institutions expect that 2017 PV growth will be 19%, the second quarter PV shipments and equipment...
Since 2017, with the official announcement of PV subsidy price, the prospects of the PV market continue to stabilize. China's PV industry enterprises are full of confidence in the 2017 market. Relevant institutions expect that PV growth will be 19% in 2017, and PV shipments and installed capacity will increase by more than 100% in the second quarter. As time went into June, the highly anticipated PV “6·30†rushing tide was once again coming back. Analysts pointed out that as the new wave of rushing to install is getting closer, the photovoltaic industry will exceed market expectations. Since June 30th, the on-grid tariff of photovoltaic centralized power stations will be lowered by 13%~19%. In the first half of 2017, the photovoltaic “preemption tide†reappeared. According to reports from authoritative media, many photovoltaic power station enterprises have entered the rush to install, which has driven the sales of products of upstream industrial chain enterprises, and indirectly led to the performance of PV companies in the first half of this year. The cause of the overall excitement of this industry is the downward trend of domestic PV tariff subsidies.
At the end of 2016, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the Notice on Adjusting the On-grid Electricity Price of Onshore Wind Power for Photovoltaic Power Generation. After January 1, 2017, the benchmark electricity price for new photovoltaic power plants in the first to third types of resource areas will be further lowered from the 2016 electricity price. . At the same time, it is clear that in the future, the PV benchmark price will be adjusted once a year according to the cost changes. According to the regulations of the National Development and Reform Commission, photovoltaic power plants that were filed before 2017 and included in the 2016 fiscal subsidy scale management photovoltaic power generation project will be installed online before June 30, 2017, and will implement the 2016 benchmark on-grid tariff.
In the "13th Five-Year Plan for Solar Energy Development" previously announced by the National Energy Administration, the basic tasks of the development of the solar energy industry during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period are industrial upgrading, cost reduction, application expansion, and non-reliance on state subsidies. Market-oriented self-sustainability. At the same time, continue to increase investment and research and development of new products and new technologies, and effectively drive down the cost of products, thus providing customers with highly cost-effective and high-quality products.
The impact of the rushing tide on photovoltaic power generation is obvious. According to the latest statistics released by the National Energy Administration in February, as of the end of 2016, the newly installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation in China was nearly 30 million kilowatts, and the cumulative installed capacity was over 70 million kilowatts. Both new and cumulative installed capacity data rank first in the world. Among them, the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic power plants far exceeds 50 GW, and the distributed cumulative installed capacity reaches nearly 9 GW.
In the face of the downward trend of subsidized electricity prices, the mood of PV companies to compete for time is even more urgent. "The sooner the grid is connected, the more electricity subsidies are enjoyed." As a result, PV companies have started to rush into the rush to install, which has led to an increase in sales performance of many companies. In order to enjoy the same benchmark price as last year, major PV companies will undoubtedly rush to install PV power plants before June 30, which will lead to the resurgence of the 6.30 rush. According to Wind's statistics, among the dozens of PV listed companies that have disclosed the semi-annual report performance, there are more than 10 pre-history companies, accounting for nearly 70%.
The installed capacity in the first half of the year will exceed 22GW
This year's "6·30" rush to install the tide is much later than last year. The latest industry report issued by UBS, a UBS public utilities and new energy industry analyst, reminds that “although the new installed capacity of PV in the first quarter of 2017 was the same as that of the same period last year, the rush to install the tide really started from late April. At the beginning, it was nearly two months late last year. UBS expects that the installed capacity of PV in the first half of this year is expected to exceed 22GW in the same period last year.
In addition to this year's "6·30" rush to install the official start time later than last year, the report also believes that this year's supply and demand situation is more "tight". Liu Shuai analyzed, "Because the market has generally been unpredictable for the first half of this year, it is expected to be lower than the demand of the same period last year, coupled with the late start of this year, the power station developers are generally understocked, and component manufacturing The business is currently at full capacity and the inventory is almost zero.†The report predicts that the power station installed at the grid that is still actively stocking and hopes to be completed by June 30 will have nearly 15 GW, even exceeding the short-term component availability. . Therefore, in the case of tight supply and demand, the average price of photovoltaic products will still have room to rise before the end of June.
Liu Shuai said that this year's PV industry "grabbing tide" presents two new features. The first is that the "pretend loading" officially started later. Although the installed capacity of PV in the first quarter was the same as that of the same period last year, the rush to install the tide began in late April, nearly two months later than last year. This point can be seen from the change in the average price of photovoltaic products: this year, after the rapid decline in polysilicon prices, which began in early March due to the short-term weakening of market demand, prices have rebounded steadily since late April. Last year, after the price of polysilicon fell from January, the price rebounded in late February.
Second, the supply and demand situation is even tighter. The market has generally been unpredictable for the "pre-emptive tide" in the first half of this year, and it is considered to be lower than the demand in the same period of last year. In addition, this year's "preemptive loading" started late, power station developers are generally understocked, and component manufacturers are currently It is also produced at full capacity and the inventory is almost zero. It is estimated that there are still about 15 GW of power stations installed on the grid that are still actively stocking and hope to be completed by June 30, even exceeding the supply of components in the short term. Therefore, the average price of PV products is expected to be available before the end of June. Rising space.
A number of PV companies have reported good results in the semi-annual report
Last year's "6·30" rush to install the tide, which drove the production capacity of PV upstream enterprises, which also brought good results to PV companies. According to statistics, from the performance of 42 A-share PV listed companies in 2016, only two companies suffered losses. Of the 40 companies that have grown, 11 expect a net profit increase of more than 100% attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 2016.
With the adjustment of the on-grid price this year, the 6.30 rush to install the tide will come back, the performance of photovoltaic companies is worth looking forward to. According to Wind's statistics, among the 18 PV listed companies that have disclosed the semi-annual report results, there are 13 pre-incubation companies with pre-increased, slightly increased, continued profits and losses, accounting for 72%.
Among the 13 pre-history companies, 5 companies are expected to double their net profit, including Kehua Hengsheng, Fangda Group, Zhongli Group, Colin Environmental and Jingsheng Electromechanical. The performance of these companies has increased significantly, mainly related to the wave of rushing in the first half of the year. Among them, Zhongli Group expects to achieve a net profit of 33.87 million yuan to 50.81 million yuan in the first half of this year, turning losses into profits. Fangda Group expects to achieve a net profit of 200 million yuan to 250 million yuan in the first half of the year, an increase of 276.25% to 370.31%.
In addition, Zhonghuan expects that the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies from January to June this year will be 270 million yuan to 320 million yuan, the largest increase of 27.58%.
In this regard, photovoltaic industry expert Zhao Yuwen said: "Before this year's '6·30', the installed capacity of PV enterprises will be larger than that before last year's '6·30'. The re-emergence of the pre-installation tide will be given to the upstream single polysilicon enterprises and component companies. The volume of goods has brought a lot of improvement, so the increase in the performance of PV companies in the first half of this year will be greater than that in the first half of last year.
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