Abstract In the first half of 2016, the over-loading of the Chinese market and the substantial growth of the US-Indian market pushed up the total demand this year to 69.5 GW (GW). TrendForce's new energy research brand EnergyTrend (Jibang New Energy Network...
In the first half of 2016, the over-loading of the Chinese market and the substantial growth of the US-Indian market pushed up the total demand this year to 69.5 GW (GW). TrendForce's new energy research brand EnergyTrend (Jibang New Energy Network) estimates that in 2017, PV demand will be almost zero growth, and the oversupply will cause the price to be out of order in the second half of next year, not only the price of components in 2017. The annual decline will exceed 10%, and the price of polysilicon, silicon wafers and battery chips in the middle and upper reaches may be lower and lower. Therefore, next year, all enterprises will list the cost reduction as the primary goal and face the industry downturn in 2017. 
EnergyTrend estimates that the top three solar demand countries will change in 2017, due to China's 2017 PV index slightly lower than 2016, the US rush to shrink, and Japan's purchase rate (FiT) continued to fall. The rising India may replace Japan and become the throne of the third-demanding power.
However, the growth rate of India and emerging markets has not compensated for the decline in demand in China, the United States and Japan. In order to consolidate shipments, the first-line component factories have broken their prices in 2017. The average price of the component market is estimated to be US$0.38 at the beginning of 2017. / W, fell to US$ 0.33 / W at the end of the year, not only the upstream and downstream manufacturers will face huge losses, but also the first-line component factories will not be able to maintain the gross margin of over 15%. Overall, the top-down profit of the PV supply chain in 2017 will be lower than the 2016 level.
Third place production capacity release, local prices tend to be the same price
In addition, since the United States imposed "double-reverse" sanctions on the two sides of the strait in 2014, photovoltaic cells and component deployment capacity have avoided high tax rates in Southeast Asia, and enjoyed a better price advantage. However, China's first-tier manufacturers have expanded their production overseas, and the spot prices of the United States and Europe have recently been rapidly killed. In the past, the United States and Europe, which have become high-priced markets due to trade barriers, are currently deducting the same price as the Chinese market. . In the next year, global component prices will become more consistent, and the third-floor capacity won't depend on the amount of capacity, but whether it can produce differentiated products such as single crystal or single crystal PERC.
Lin Rongrong, an associate researcher at EnergyTrend, pointed out that especially for Taiwanese companies that only produce battery chips and foundry products in the third place, profits will be compressed by overseas component prices that continue to fall, and it is difficult to see the advantages. The capacity of the three places has turned into a business package.
PERC's volumetric piloting single crystal market accounts for more than 32%
Observing changes in PERC production, EnergyTrend statistics, this year's global PERC production capacity has reached 13GW, but the output is less than 4.5GW, with the increase in manufacturers' output and efficiency, 2017 PERC production is expected to double. Benefiting from the high cost performance of PERC products and the warming up of the front runners, the market share of single crystals will continue to increase in this year and next year. Especially in the next year's 5.5GW leader plan, the single crystal occupancy rate may be close to 80%, pushing up the single crystal. China's market share will be close to 40%. Lin Rongrong said that in addition to the need for large-scale development in China, PERC has gradually expanded into overseas markets. In 2017, the overseas single crystal market will grow significantly. The global single crystal ratio will rise from 23.5% this year to next year. 32%, the market outlook is expected.
In 2017, black silicon technology is still the biggest bottleneck of the diamond-cut polycrystalline products. However, due to the collapse of the price and the expansion of the single crystal market, it is imperative to cut the polysilicon wafers. As the company's cash level is still tight, EnergyTrend estimates that companies will consider mass production of black silicon products in the form of wet or additive.
On the whole, the imbalance between supply and demand in the industry and the violent fluctuations in the demand in the terminal market have caused the price of solar energy to collapse rapidly this year and next. Enterprises must achieve the goal of reducing costs and even improving product quality through PERC and black silicon technology.
At the same time, in response to the price will be out of order again, the industry chain will rethink the layout of products and profit models, and manufacturers that fail to enhance competitiveness will have difficulty to weather the harsh market conditions. Lin Rongrong said that whether it is to increase the ratio of single crystal capacity with the increase of single crystal market, introduce diamond wire or black silicon products, or adapt to the trend of entering the downstream or distributed market, the positioning of enterprises in 2017 needs to be more clear. To prevent the risk of being marginalized.
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