The renminbi has touched the US dollar against the US dollar for seven days. Some people are happy and worried.

Hot money is pouring out or A-shares are plunging, investors can still hold RMB

Under the European debt crisis, European people live in a "deep water"; strangely, their stocks are stronger than A-shares - why are Chinese stocks worse than Europeans? One speculation is that the international capital in China has returned to Europe and the United States, and the A shares have plummeted.

The October data released by the central bank on the previous day showed that the central bank's accumulated foreign exchange balance decreased by nearly 90 billion yuan in the month, which was the first decline in the past eight years. It seems to be annotating the hot money outflow. Yesterday, the renminbi against the US dollar hit a daily limit for the sixth consecutive trading day. Is “hot money” really a culprit? What effect does “deleveraging” in Europe and the United States have on the Chinese economy? The reporter conducted an interview on this.

Hot hits: the devaluation of the RMB industry suffered a cold spell

The expectation of RMB depreciation is a hot topic in the near future. As of December 6, the spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar hit a “down limit” for the fifth consecutive trading day, and the continuous decline was the first time in three years. With the negative expectation of RMB depreciation, many aviation stocks have plunged in the past week. From December 2 to December 7, the trading price of China Southern Airlines (600029) fell 11%, Air China (601111) 7% decline, Eastern Airlines (600115 this year, the operating performance of the airlines, to a large extent benefited from the appreciation of the renminbi, the exchange of income generated, this part of the income of the account is generally high debt-based enterprises, A large amount of debt is required to purchase new aircraft in order to maintain a competitive advantage in scale. The third quarterly report shows that Air China’s debt ratio is 70%, while China Southern’s debt ratio is 69%. As the current civil aviation aircraft market is dominated by Boeing and Airbus. The giant monopoly needs to pay euros or dollars to purchase Airbus and Boeing aircraft. Therefore, most of the airline’s liabilities are foreign currency debts formed by buying and leasing aircraft, and a certain amount of interest expense and principal are paid each year. The appreciation of the renminbi against the US dollar and the euro means that the airline's net foreign debt will be reduced in proportion to the exchange rate.

To put it simply, because of the appreciation of the renminbi, the foreign currency has depreciated relatively. As domestic airlines mainly earn renminbi to repay foreign debts, their external debts are relatively reduced as the renminbi appreciates, so the resulting book proceeds are exchanges. The proceeds are gone. However, the current depreciation of the renminbi is expected to become a positive for airlines. The market has expected that the depreciation of the renminbi will reduce the future exchange gains of airlines and reduce net profit. Investment newsletter

Some people are happy about the seven-month losing streak

Yesterday, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar was reported at 6.3319, a slight increase of 23 basis points from the previous trading day (6.3342). The international currency market is fluctuating, and the EU summit is just around the corner, and the market is more cautious. The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar hit the daily limit for seven consecutive trading days. Does it mean that the appreciation trend of the RMB has changed? Many foreign investment bankers have given negative answers. They generally believe that the recent depreciation of the renminbi against the US dollar is only a short-term phenomenon. In the long run, the appreciation trend of the renminbi has not reversed. It is expected that the exchange rate of the renminbi against the US dollar will still have a 3% appreciation rate next year.

Fu Xinjie, a researcher at Rixin Securities, said that the expected increase in the depreciation of the renminbi may have adverse effects on the three major industries. The first is the local currency asset industry, such as real estate, finance and mining; secondly, the industries with high foreign currency liabilities, such as aviation and trade; and finally, the high import industries, such as petrochemical, paper and steel. Under the expectation of RMB depreciation, it may cause downward expectations for the above sectors. However, given that many of the above sectors have fallen a lot, it is not easy to say how much they will fall in the future. On the contrary, some industries may benefit from the depreciation of the RMB. Such as textile and clothing, shipping and chemicals. Most of the sectors affected by the negative depreciation of the Renminbi are due to increased cost pressures. Such as aviation, paper, petrochemicals and steel. In addition, financial services and real estate are due to the fact that overseas investors may give lower valuations, while trade is due to a decrease in exchange gains. Most of the sectors affected by the positives are favorable to exports. Such as cars, shipping, textiles and clothing and steel.