Australian coal exports blocked or pulled China's exports

On January 12, the Marine Coalnet released the 14th Bohai Bohai Thermal Coal Price Index. The average price of Bohai Bohai steam coal was 776 yuan/ton, which was a decrease of 3 yuan/ton from the previous period and a decrease of 30 yuan from the high point in mid-November this year. Yuan / ton. Compared with the relative dullness of the domestic market, the international coal market is expected to have a stronger price increase under the influence of flooding in Australia. However, the suspension of Australian coal exports to shift users in the Asia Pacific region to the Chinese market may increase China's exports.

In the domestic thermal coal market, the most representative Qinhuangdao coal price in the Bohai Rim fell overall. Among them, the weekly price drop of thermal coal of 4500, 5000, and 5500 calories was RMB 5/ton; only 5,800 kcal thermal coal prices remained unchanged at RMB 830-840/ton.

Li Xuegang, an expert in the coal industry, believes that the low temperature weather in some parts of the south has a low correlation with the coal market in the coastal areas and does not seem to have brought more impact on the supply and demand of coal in the Bohai Rim region; coal production, operation and consumption enterprises in the coastal areas appear to have Gradually, the performance of the coal market during the peak season in winter has lost confidence; the “shadow” of recent price cuts by major coal producers has lingered.

According to An Zhiyuan, head of Qinhuangdao Coal Network Information Center, the price of major coal production areas has remained stable this week. Shanxi coal prices have been stable for several consecutive weeks. The Spring Festival is approaching, and some small mines have begun to shut down and restrict production, which has affected the supply of coal. In addition, the pattern of supply and demand for thermal coal in the Bohai Rim region is slightly biased towards the “buyer’s market” and the pattern remains unchanged. Coal shipment companies are not actively shipping. Coal prices in Inner Mongolia remained stable this week after a slight downward adjustment last week.

As of January 12, Qinhuangdao Port coal inventories stood at 7.338 million tons, a slight increase of 17,000 tons; Jingtanggang coal yard had 2.96 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 160,000 tons, a decrease of 5.13%, and Caofeidian Port of 1.86 million tons. The reduction was 290,000 tons, a decrease of 13.49%. The total inventories of the three ports in the Bohai Rim were 12.291 million tons, a decrease of 433,000 tons from the week earlier, a decrease of 3.52%. The number of coal inventories at the Bohai Rim Port has been declining for three consecutive weeks.

The inventory of Yuedian Power Plant has increased, and it has maintained a daily average of 1,173,000 tons within a week. As the main port of coal loading and unloading in the south of Guangzhou Port, the coal import and export price remained stable. As of January 12th, the price of 5,000 kcal and 5,500 kcal coal kilns in Guangzhou Port was 790 yuan/ton and 885 yuan/ton, respectively, and remained stable.

Exports may rebound In the international thermal coal market, due to Australian floods affecting supply, price increases are expected to be strong. Floods in Queensland have caused almost all coal mines to close due to flooding. It is estimated that about 300-4.5 million tons of coal cannot be exported. As East Asia entered the winter heating period, coal demand has increased, coupled with the recent rise in international coal prices, analysts believe that this may push up China’s coal exports, and China's coal exports in January this year may further rise. It is understood that many South Korean and Japanese power plants are looking for alternative suppliers.

According to the data provided by the General Administration of Customs, China's coal exports in November and December last year were 1.279 million tons and 1.45 million tons, respectively, which has maintained a two-month sequential increase. In 2010, China exported a total of 19.03 million tons of coal, which was a year-on-year drop of 15% compared to 2009, but it has eased from the 50.7% decline in exports in 2009.

In addition, the recent domestic coal shipping charges show signs of rising. On January 12, the seaborne freight rates for shipping from 20,000 to 30,000 tons of ships to Shanghai and Zhangjiagang in the Bohai Rim increased by 4.65% and 2.17%, respectively. Qinhuangdao Coal Network Zeng Bo said that the rise and fall of sea freight rates may indicate that the coal price tends to be stable, and the possibility that coal demand will continue to weaken will decrease.