2012 China Photovoltaic Power Market Review

After years of ignorance and exaggeration, the global photovoltaic industry in the first half of 2012 is still suffering from oversupply and potential containment.

Looking at the global PV environment, downstream suppliers are in trouble. Affected by overcapacity worldwide, the photovoltaic industry's manufacturing sector has stagnated in the past six months. The long-lasting financial crisis has led most countries to reduce domestic project funding and subsidies. Local protection requirements and import tariffs and other protectionism are popular.

In fact, according to the latest report released by GTM Research, a market research organization, this year's global PV module production capacity will reach 59GW, while the market demand is only 30GW. GTM pointed out that the oversupply has caused losses to the industry, leading to a number of European and American solar generator companies going bankrupt because they did not catch up with the 50% decline in solar generator panel prices. At present, the price of photovoltaic modules is maintained at 0.700.85 US$/W, and the sharp decline in PV module prices will continue. It is expected to drop to US$0.45/W by 2015.

However, even in this dismal market, it is not difficult to find some bright spots. For example, the Australian carbon tax will take effect on July 1, which will greatly promote the use of renewable energy; large-scale capital in regional, state and transnational fields. injection. In addition, some developed countries also welcome the development of solar generators. For example, Japan’s new on-grid tariff subsidy mechanism began implementation on July 1 and provides solar generators with a subsidy of 42 yen per kilowatt-hour for a period of 20 years. In addition, Saudi Arabia also has funds and ambition to develop solar generators.

Countries have reduced their PV subsidies In the first half of 2012, the debt of countries around the world increased significantly, and generous funds and subsidies for new energy technologies have been reduced.

On the day before the New Year, the US Congress blocked the extension of the 1603 Act, which means that as long as applicants can start construction before December 31, 2011 and finish on December 31, 2016, they can still get a 30% tax. Relief.

At the same time, the Spanish government announced on January 28 that it would completely suspend the on-grid tariffs for newly-built renewable energy projects; Israel lowered the on-grid tariff subsidies by 23%, effective from January 1. On February 1, Greece reduced the on-grid tariff subsidies by 12.4. %; South Korea replaces feed-in tariffs with renewable energy mix standards; on March 1, Switzerland cuts subsidies for photovoltaics by 18%; Germany cuts FiT subsidies and cancels funds for photovoltaic power plants of more than 10MW, which took effect on April 1. In July, Bulgaria reduced solar subsidies by 50%; Italy's fifth energy bill is expected to take effect in September.

However, to the next level in the food chain, at the state level in the United States, in July California passed a FiT subsidy bill for the poor and disadvantaged. This is also the first time North American initiative for poverty advocates to use the on-grid price subsidies for the poor to fight for the equal use of renewable energy.

The New Jersey Senate and the State Assembly agreed to pass the Solar Generator Resurrection Act (A2966) and voted to replace and revise. The position of solar generators in New Jersey is largely influenced by political and renewable energy policies rather than the solar generator resources themselves, pointing out that the National Solar Generator Credit (SREC) market offers a large number of installation projects. In the short term, the market could not be quickly rescued from oversupply. However, the amount of installation projects will slow down in the second half of 2012, but this legislation means that growth will be restored in 2013.

Similarly, Connecticut is implementing a zero-emission renewable energy credit plan, which will receive a ZREC per megawatt of electricity generation and a maximum of $350 per 1 MW system.

Protectionist policies have set protectionist barriers in many areas because profits have come to unprecedented levels, fierce competition for items, and funds have become increasingly difficult to obtain. On April 6 this year, the Ontario Electric Power Bureau announced the draft documents for microFiT and FiT2.0, as well as the specific implementation terms for the revised feed-in tariff. The Ontario government plans to cut the on-grid tariff subsidies by 31.5%, and the subsidy prices for roof systems and ground installation systems will be 0.549 Canadian dollars and 0.445 Canadian dollars, respectively. In addition, solar generator companies that want price guarantees and grid access granted by the on-grid tariff plan must ensure that 60% of the equipment used to produce energy comes from Ontario, including solar generator panels and related services.

Ontario is not the first region to include "domestic composition requirements." In the past few years, at least four countries (China, France, India, and Italy) have adopted more or less local content requirements for renewable energy. In May, the two US senators announced their plans to introduce local content requirements in order to prevent Chinese PV manufacturers from using the US’s 30% tax rebate policy.

Japan and the European Union expressed to the World Trade Organization the dissatisfaction with on-grid tariffs in Ontario, Canada, accusing them of discriminating against global trading partners and giving preferential treatment to local suppliers.

In addition, the industry has never had a shortage of talks. There have been several lawsuits against China's solar generator manufacturers. The first US-made solar generator manufacturers are now in the EU. In both cases, Solar World AG has always been the initiator, except that the former is its American subsidiary and the latter personally.

In the United States, there are six other manufacturers in addition to Solar World America. The U.S. Department of Commerce has made a ruling to impose anti-dumping and countervailing duties on all solar generator products from China. The U.S. government will soon announce the final ruling. The EU investigation will be limited to anti-dumping and has not yet been accepted.

In response, China has already claimed to adopt similar countermeasures.

The only big one we look at the hardware situation. This year, crystalline silicon is still the most powerful technology. The highest conversion efficiency of high-end single-crystal products reaches 22%, but the production cost is too high. Compared with polysilicon, profitability is more difficult, and the latter has always occupied a higher market share.

Silicon crystal supporters are suffering from oversupply, both raw materials and finished products. Some suppliers have already filed for bankruptcy. The price of imported polysilicon in the United States is so low that Chinese suppliers such as GCL-Poly and Big Brand New Energy are said to have filed a lawsuit against the Ministry of Commerce to seek taxation on US imports of crystalline silicon.

However, the lawsuit requests initiated by polysilicon companies have been strongly opposed by domestic solar generator manufacturers, and these companies can only benefit from purchasing low-cost crystalline silicon raw materials.

This may be the first time that China’s labor and production costs have failed to protect its manufacturers from financial turmoil, even if US tariffs cannot materially affect China’s market momentum. In the second half of 2012, there will be about 5 GW of demand in the Chinese domestic market, which will greatly ease the pressure China's crystalline silicon manufacturers face in the US market.

In addition, the price of Tier 1 Chinese products in the U.S. market is higher than in Europe, indicating that Chinese manufacturers may prefer to partially give up U.S. markets and sell products in Europe, which also exacerbates the price competition there. Renewable Analytics analyst Dirk Morbitzer said: "At present, the PV industry is playing a real big game. The market maintains a clear overcapacity and puts downward pressure on prices."

The company has already felt its own pain. In April, German photovoltaic company QCells filed for bankruptcy and became a victim of the ruthless photovoltaic market. In June, Schott Solar AG, a German company, announced that due to the “very severe deterioration” of the photovoltaic market, the company will stop production of all crystalline silicon products. In addition, a large number of European and American solar generator companies were forced to apply for bankruptcy, confirming that the solar generator industry is undergoing consolidation.

In general, thin-film batteries have lower efficiency and lower production costs than crystalline silicon. This technology is a rising star in the solar generator industry, but it has not emerged from this year. As the price of traditional PV modules plummets, thin-film companies find themselves under increasing pressure and have to increase conversion efficiency and reduce manufacturing costs in order to remain competitive.

On July 4, the media reported that General Electric (GE) has suspended the construction of the largest cadmium telluride thin film solar generator factory in the United States. In April 2011, after General Electric purchased Primestar Solar, it announced the construction of a 400MW thin film plant. The project will now be postponed for at least 18 months.

At the same time, First Solar, which was among the world’s top ten largest membrane module manufacturers last year, is also experiencing its own difficulties. First Solar's first-quarter nonGAAP loss was $449 million, or $5.20 per share. The company also announced the formation of a new management team, James Hughes as CEO, and Raffi Garabedian as CTO. Last month, FirstSolar stated that it will maintain the operation of the German factory, but only last until the end of the year. After this, the factory will be permanently closed.

Also in June, Abound Solar, a maker of cadmium telluride thin-film modules that received US$400 million in guarantees from the US Department of Energy, announced that it will file for bankruptcy. At the same time, Nova Solar filed for bankruptcy under Chapter 11 of the Bankruptcy Law.

However, one company seems to have found a "secret." On June 12, Calyxo GmbH disclosed that it will increase the capacity of cadmium telluride thin film photovoltaic modules. The company said that it will increase production from 25MW to 80MW through the second production line before the end of this year.

Calyxo GmbH stated in an official statement: "The technology of cadmium telluride has unlimited potential to reduce the cost of solar generators. Thin-film solar generators have low manufacturing costs and can convert solar generators in bad weather conditions. Into electricity. Thin-film modules can also operate efficiently on roofs that are not facing south."

Photovoltaic Project At a Glance Although the market is full of worries, a large number of photovoltaic projects were signed, developed or delivered in the first half of 2012. The photovoltaic industry's installation department has remained busy.

In Chile, China Renewable Energy Company Tianhua Sunshine will invest 900 million U.S. dollars to develop a 300MW photovoltaic power plant project. The company plans to build a 2MW pilot project this year, and then will build 18MW ground photovoltaic power station. In the next 18 months, at least 150MW of photovoltaic power plant projects will be built.

In June, Japan’s Toshiba announced plans to build a 100MW solar generator power station in Minami Soma. The electronics giant will invest 30 billion yen and is expected to start construction this year and finish in 2014.

In January 2012, the California Public Utilities Commission approved five renewable energy contracts with a total installed capacity of 1,088 MW. Three of these agreements were signed with Southern California Edison and Solar Star California, including the Quinto, AVSPI, and II photovoltaic projects, with a total installed capacity of 711 MW. The Quinto project is expected to start generating electricity at the end of 2014, and the latter two projects will be operational in October 2016.

In June, the U.S. federal agency approved the development of a 350MW solar generator station in the Indian Reservation Zone, the first commercial solar generator power generation project on tribal land. The electricity generated by this project is expected to supply 100,000 families.

At the national level, the proportion of electricity generated by German solar generators increased significantly in the first half of 2012. Germany's solar generators once again created a new world record. In the first half of 2012, 14.7TWh of power was input into the grid, which accounted for 4.5% of the total power output during the same period and met 10% 50% of daily peak power demand.

What are the biggest challenges and major challenges facing the PV industry players?

Sabena Suri, chief executive of Golden Gate Solar Tech, stated: “The biggest progress has been the taxation of solar panels for Chinese solar generators and the closure of a large number of manufacturers. At present, the market is still oversupply. Manufacturers are entering solar power generator projects** In the end, everyone is looking for emerging markets that are able to finance, such as Saudi Arabia."

Jack Rivkin, member of the Board of Directors of the World Policy Institute, said: "I think the most positive thing in the first half of the year is the development of energy storage technologies, which will help the development of indirect technologies; and the reduction in the use of nuclear technology, which will strengthen the use of solar generators. On the other hand, the hydraulic fracturing technology has made great progress in technology, which will accelerate the acquisition of hydrocarbons by humans, making it more difficult for solar power generators to stand up on their heels. On the whole, it is a development of the solar power generator industry. Big disadvantages."

Rosie Pidcock, International Student Energy Summit 2011: “Although there have been uneasiness in the photovoltaics manufacturing industry, the global installed capacity of solar generators for photovoltaic power generation still looks to be increasing. There is no doubt that even though manufacturers are experiencing downward prices, Pressure, but solar generators are more competitive in terms of cost than fossil fuels. But it is an indisputable fact."