Chen Huiren: The machine tool industry as a whole is still in the down range

Abstract : "The industry as a whole is still in the downside and has not stabilized. In the first 10 months of 2013, the main operating data of the machine tool industry, such as production and sales, new orders, etc., all accumulated negative growth, but the decline was slower than the same period of the previous year. "December 20, Chinese machine...
REVIEW:. "The whole industry is still in the down range, there is no steady rise first 10 months of 2013, the machine tool industry production and sales, new orders and so on all the major operating data accumulated negative growth, but the decline has slowed from a year earlier." On December 20th, Chen Huiren, executive vice president of China Machine Tool & Tool Industry Association, said when talking about the status quo of the industry.

Demand structure continues to upgrade

When it comes to market changes, Chen Huiren cited a number of import and export data.

In the first three quarters of this year, the import volume of machine tool products decreased by 25%, while the average price of imported machine tools increased by 24%, reflecting the upgrading of domestic machine tool market demand.

Analysis of the origin of imported products can also lead to this conclusion. Europe, the United States, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan are the main sources of China's machine tool imports. The products in these regions account for more than 95% of China's total machine tool imports. Since 2013, the performance of products in different regions has begun to differentiate in the Chinese market. Among them, the European and American departments represented by Germany and Italy are the most glamorous, achieving a contrarian growth of 10%; Japan's decline is the most dramatic, reaching more than half; while South Korea and Taiwan are down by 20%.

Most of the European and American exports to China are high-end products, while Taiwan and South Korea are quite competitive in the low-end market. As the two rise and fall, we can see the changes in market demand.

If we go further and analyze it from domestic import areas, this view will be further supported. The top three domestic machine tool imports are: Jiangsu, Shanghai and Guangdong. In the first three quarters of this year, Jiangsu's machine tool imports fell by 20%, Guangdong Province by 30%, and Shanghai by 4%.

The manufacturing industries in these three regions have their own characteristics. Among them, Shanghai's high-end manufacturing industry is the most developed, and the demand for machine tools is relatively strong. The high-end manufacturing needs naturally high-end machine tools.

These data show that the domestic machine tool market demand has undergone significant changes, the total demand has declined, and the demand structure has been upgraded.

More competitive market

The machine tool association's key contact enterprise data and some enterprises' research shows that in the first three quarters, especially from January to August, the machine tool industry was in a low-level operation state; the market scale was shrinking overall, and the industry's industrial structure, product structure and market demand contradiction were not yet effective. In the first three quarters, corporate profits continued to decline, and market competition became increasingly fierce. Under the situation of insufficient recovery of the world economy, the downward trend of export growth has not yet improved significantly. At the same time, the long-term growth of imports has also seen a sharp decline, further confirming the market. The overall scale of shrinking.

Chen Huiren said that in the context of a continuous decline in the market, the pace of industrial transformation and upgrading is accelerating, which is the result of the role of the reverse mechanism. In the face of market dilemmas, enterprises have shifted from the passive coping stage to the active compliance stage, and a few enterprises have begun to actively grasp the market.

The performance of companies can be roughly divided into four categories. First, it has risen against the trend, accounting for 20% to 30%. A common feature of these companies is that they have characteristics. Although each has its own high-tech tricks, it can be different. Second, strengthen management and increase the intensity of market development. This is the choice of most enterprises. The path of enterprise development has not changed, but it has chosen in the predicament. "Practical internal strength", from the perspective of quality, cost, etc.; Third, structural adjustment. Some enterprises have carried out in-depth structural adjustments, focusing on long-term development and fundamentally transforming. Fourth, a small number of enterprises are still waiting to see and complain, and are overwhelmed by market changes.

At present, the outstanding problems facing the industry are: serious shortage of orders and serious competition for homogenization. In 2012, machine tool manufacturers still had some orders for the previous year, but in the context of continued decline in new orders, companies are holding fewer and fewer orders.

The reduction in orders further exacerbated market competition. In some markets with low technical barriers, product homogeneity is very serious, such as three-axis vertical machining centers and two-axis CNC lathes. The advantage of local companies lies in price and service. Today, the market continues to decline and can only "shopping" prices.

In this regard, Chen Huiren said that vicious and irrational competition will harm the interests of the whole industry. The association will organize industry self-discipline activities and oppose price wars.

Upgrade is not a one-off

When talking about the forecast for the coming year, Chen Huiren said: "There will be no big difference with this year. Enterprises must have a deep understanding of the transformation and upgrading, and solve the problem of understanding before they can find a way to win."

He believes that at the current stage, the transformation and upgrading of the industry needs to solve several cognitive and practical problems first. .

First, transformation and upgrading is an inevitable choice for achieving sustainable development. The slowdown in the current stage of the Chinese economy is not a simple cyclical downturn, but a profound and complex background. In the current situation, it is especially necessary to completely abandon the expectation of the government to further launch a strong economic stimulus plan, and give up the desire for a strong rebound in demand in the low-end market, because the above expectations and cravings are unrealistic.

Second, transformation and upgrading is a long and arduous process. Industry practice has repeatedly proved that it is impossible to completely rely on the speed of the road. To truly achieve transformation and upgrading, the necessary courses cannot be streamlined, and the necessary links cannot be omitted. The key difficulty is that they cannot be bypassed. Transformation and upgrading is also a process of competition, which is bound to be accompanied by the process of industry differentiation, restructuring and survival of the fittest. In this process, who will turn faster and who will turn more thoroughly, who will gain the opportunity to compete and become the winner of the competition.

Third, transformation and upgrading is a process of continuous innovation. There is no ready-made general-purpose model for the transformation and upgrading of the industry to follow and apply. It is impossible to expect industry enterprises to implement transformation and upgrading in a certain mode. This is impossible and should not be. China's machine tool manufacturing industry has long been a fully market-oriented industry. In this industrial development environment, industry enterprises should be fully equipped within the framework of national laws and regulations, within the scope permitted by national industrial policies, according to their actual choice of transformation and upgrading. Respect, and should not be subject to excessive accusations or interventions.

Fourth, the core goal of transformation and upgrading is competitiveness. So far, China's medium and high-end products with major varieties and specifications are basically “can do”, but there are not many companies that have strong market competitiveness. The long-term existence of this situation is inseparable from the main technical routes adopted by the industry. So far, the industry still adopts a pragmatic technical route based on tracking and imitation. This technical route has the comparative advantage of high starting point, short cycle and fast speed. However, if it is not well grasped, it is easy to behave as "like God does not resemble". . In the long period of time in the future, “doing bad” will become increasingly prominent as the main contradiction facing the industry. Therefore, in the new historical development stage of the industry, it is necessary to invest enough sufficient attention and resources to strive to achieve a higher level of leap, that is, from the "can do" to the "good" leap, that is, to achieve high-end Product market competitiveness upgrades and leapfrogs.

Fifth, transformation and upgrading is an overall improvement of the overall quality of enterprises. Regarding the transformation and upgrading of the industry, it is also necessary to solve another misunderstanding, that is, the transformation and upgrading mainly refers to the technical scope. However, with regard to technology and technology, it is impossible to effectively realize transformation and upgrading of products. The gap between the strong competitors in China and developed countries is not a simple gap between technology and products. Although the external manifestation of our gap is the market competitiveness of products, the inherent essence of the gap is the overall quality of the enterprise. Therefore, in order to achieve a comprehensive transformation and upgrading of enterprises, we must focus on the overall improvement of the overall quality of enterprises. We must not only focus on hardware investment, but also focus on software construction; not only focus on technological progress, but also focus on management upgrades; not only focus on things, but also focus on people; not only to improve internal operating mechanisms, but also The top-level system guarantee; not only must focus on system construction, especially on cultural cultivation. It's hard to imagine how good German-made quality would be if there were no rigorous, honest and trustworthy German companies.

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