Talking about Earthquake Prediction

Earthquake forecasting is a very complex global scientific problem. It is only more than thirty years before humans began to conduct an official exploration of earthquake prediction. Now, we have some understanding of the principles and laws of the occurrence of earthquakes, but we still do not fully understand them; we have been able to make certain forecasts for certain types of earthquakes, but we cannot make accurate predictions for all earthquakes. The mid- and long-term forecasts we have made have a certain degree of credibility, but the success rate of short-term impending predictions is still relatively low.

China is the only country identified by UNESCO as a successful short-term forecast for major earthquakes. In February 1975, we successfully forecasted the 7.3 magnitude earthquake in Haicheng, Liaoning, and saved tens of thousands of lives. In addition, we have devastated the 1976, 6.7, and 7.2 earthquakes between Songpan-Pingwu in 1976, the 6.7, and 6.4-magnitude earthquakes between Yanyuan and Yaning in 1976, and the 6.2-magnitude earthquake group earthquake in Ninglang in 1998. Earthquakes have also been forecasted to varying degrees and have achieved relatively good social benefits. However, in the 1976 Tangshan earthquake of magnitude 7.8 and many other destructive earthquakes, we did not make a forecast. In other countries in the world, including developed countries such as the United States and Japan, earthquake prediction is still at an exploratory stage, and earthquake prediction is far from being as accurate as the weather forecast.

From a worldwide perspective, earthquake prediction is currently in the stage of scientific exploration and is still immature. The social, political, and economic impact of the release of earthquake predictions to the society is very large. Therefore, the state has made strict regulations on the authority for forecasting.

It is necessary to firmly keep in mind the most basic one: Only the people's governments at or above the county level have the power to issue earthquake predictions. No unit or individual, including the research unit or staff of the earthquake department, is allowed to disclose and disseminate relevant information to the society. Earthquake prediction news.

Earthquake prediction refers to the use of scientific ideas and methods to make predictions on the time, location, and intensity of future earthquakes (mainly referred to as strong earthquakes) (city level). Through in-depth study on the seismogenic process and earthquake precursors, China has gradually developed an earthquake prediction method with Chinese characteristics and formed the scientific ideas and working procedures for the "prolonged, medium, short, and temporary" periodic progressive earthquake prediction.

The current earthquake forecast is an integrated forecast, which is forecasted after comprehensive analysis of seismic events, electromagnetic, gravity, crustal deformation, and groundwater dynamics.