When rumors concerning the adjustment of electricity prices were harassed, on October 15, the website of the National Development and Reform Commission formally announced to the public the “Circular on Adjusting the Electricity Tariff of Power Generation Enterprises†(hereinafter referred to as the “Noticeâ€). The on-grid electricity price of coal-fired power generation companies Under the adjustment, the on-grid electricity price for natural gas power generation was increased.
The two-way adjustment of “one on one†and the apparent “cobbing†of coal prices on the surface and the continuous rise in natural gas prices have become drivers of costs, but local power utilities have already felt the direct pressure from environmental protection and emission reduction. Shaanxi Province local power (group) company Xianyang County Bureau of leadership said: "The adjustment of the on-grid tariff has a two-way nature, mainly to urge thermal power companies to increase energy-saving emission reduction efforts, suggesting that the construction or proposed Thermal power companies, environmental assessment or will directly affect the on-grid price."
According to Huang Shaoxiong, chief analyst of the environmental watchdog Meicaisha, "It also indicates that the process of shaping the domestic environmental protection electricity price system through price adjustment measures has been quietly carried out at relevant levels."
Gas-fired power generation is difficult to solve
After the price adjustment, taking Shanghai as an example, after the on-grid tariff is raised, the cost per degree of electric digestion is 0.05 yuan, and there is still 0.04 yuan of power generation companies to bear.
In this two-way adjustment of electricity prices, natural gas power generation has received the "encourage" signal.
The "Notice" clearly stated that the prices of gas-fired power generation in some regions should be properly diverted. Increase the price of natural gas for electricity generation in Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong, Hainan, Henan, Hubei, and Ningxia provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) for the purpose of resolving the increase in electricity generation cost due to the adjustment of the inventory natural gas price. In Shanghai, some power companies have received verbal notices, and the price of gas-fired power has been raised from 0.454 yuan/kWh to 0.504 yuan/kWh. At present, the cost of power generation for natural gas power plants consists of three components: depreciation of total investment costs, fuel, and operational maintenance. According to statistics, fuel accounts for 55% to 75% of the cost of gas-fired power plants, which is far greater than the 40% fuel cost of coal-fired power plants.
On July 10 this year, the country raised the price of non-residential gas, and after adjustment, the average national portal price rose from 1.69 yuan per cubic meter to 1.95 yuan per cubic meter. Liu Yijun, an expert in natural gas at the China University of Petroleum, said after estimating that a generator set with an annual utilization hour of 3,500 hours would be measured. If the gas price rises by 0.4 yuan/cubic meter, the cost of power generation will increase by 0.09 yuan per degree. Still taking Shanghai as an example, according to one cubic meter of natural gas power generation at about 5 kilowatt-hours, the on-grid tariff was increased by 0.05 yuan, and there is still 0.04 yuan of power generation companies to bear.
The gas-fired power plants in Guangdong Province, which had implemented gas market reforms as early as 2011, also suffered from high costs. According to the person in charge of the Guangdong Provincial Natural Gas Power Plant, the gas source of most gas-fired power plants in Guangdong Province now comes from the Second West-East Gas Pipeline. The price of this gas is 3.3 yuan/cubic meter, and the corresponding power generation cost is between 0.81 yuan and 0.83 yuan/kWh. At around the same time, while the current price of gas-fired power generation in Guangdong Province is 0.745 yuan/kWh, it is clear that the cost of power generation materials will not lead to a rise in gas costs.
Zhuo Chuang Wang Xiaokun, an information natural gas analyst, believes that although the state subsidizes natural gas power generation, the rate of subsidies varies from region to region. For example, in Beijing, where subsidy is higher, the on-grid tariff of Beijing gas-fired power generation is around 0.5 yuan, and the cost of power generation In 1 yuan or so, the subsidy can give 0.5 yuan, just enough to generate electricity."
The situation of “excessive flour over bread†has directly affected the enthusiasm of local governments and enterprises for gas-fired power generation. When natural gas prices were raised, relevant persons from the Zhejiang Development and Reform Commission once said: “Since the natural gas price changes lead to higher purchase costs, and the demand for natural gas from gas-fired power plants is relatively large, local governments can hardly have sufficient funds to support gas-fired power plants. In the future, the approval of gas-fired power plants will be more stringent.†According to the plan, by 2015, natural gas power generation in Zhejiang Province will need to increase by 8 million to 9 million kWh.
Thermal power "pay" is difficult to sustain
Once thermal power companies increase environmental protection and comply with the requirements of the Ministry of Environmental Protection, it is just around the corner to increase the on-grid tariff.
The main benefit of gas-fired power generation compared to coal-fired power generation is the relatively small amount of greenhouse gas emissions. According to the data from the Siemens Research Institute, the CO2 emission from a coal-fired power unit (per kilowatt-hour) is roughly 570 grams, while that of a natural gas combined-cycle power plant is only about 330 grams. At present, sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxide emissions from coal-fired power generation enterprises account for 57.8% and 64.8% of heavy polluting industries respectively.
From the perspective of prevention and control of atmospheric pollution, in the two-way adjustment of electricity prices, the practice of “adjusting on-grid tariffs only, not adjusting sales tariffs, lowering coal-fired on-grid tariffs, and increasing gas-fired power-grid on-grid tariffs and increasing tariff surcharges†also shows that thermal power is allowed to generate thermal power. The intention of "paying" for the price increase of natural gas.
In addition to adjustments made in the two provinces of Yunnan and Sichuan, the other 29 provinces and cities have lowered their on-grid tariffs, with an average reduction of 1.4 points/kWh. According to the first seven months of 2013, the national thermal power industry has a total profit of 96.5 billion yuan. If the average growth rate of thermal power generation in 2014 is 5% and the plant power consumption rate is 5%, the reduction in electricity prices will reduce the total profit of the thermal power industry by about RMB 53 billion.
“The 53 billion yuan is actually the profit of the thermal power plant. Because the terminal selling electricity price remains the same, this part of the money is equal to the direct subsidization of the grid to renewable energy and natural gas power generation. The latter problem is whether the money can be used for clean energy power generation. On." said Zhang Zhibin, chief analyst of the Hong Kong-rich group's black industry.
"Although thermal power has lowered the on-grid tariff, the terminal sales price has not been reduced, which means that the intermediate link is the biggest beneficiary. In the short-term, it may be the power grid company," said a person in charge of a new energy company who declined to be named.
“We do not expect to get more profits, if the government can implement the subsidy funds promised before.†Several wind energy companies in Gansu Province have the same attitude.
From the point of view of controlling haze, it is understandable that thermal power is not conducive to clean energy, but whether it can become a long-term mechanism is still a question. According to Zhang Anhua, senior economist of Huaneng Group and director of the Center for Energy Economics Research of the China Development and Reform Research Institute of Central University of Finance and Economics, this adjustment will not be so intrusive for the power plant, and it can just address the cost of new energy generation. problem. However, this method is only applicable to the period when coal prices are low. Once the coal price rebounds and returns to high levels, this method will not work. "After all, the main power for ensuring the stability of electricity supply is thermal power, and the proportion of natural gas and other renewable energy generation is relatively small," he said.
The "Notice" also shows that for the coal-fired power generation enterprises that have achieved denitrification standards and are qualified by the environmental protection department, the on-grid tariff increases by 1 cent per kilowatt-hour; the use of new technologies for dust removal and smoke emission concentrations below 30 mg/m3 (key areas Less than 20mg/m3), and coal-fired power generation companies that have passed acceptance by the environmental protection department, the on-grid tariff increases 0.2 cents per kilowatt-hour.
This means that once thermal power companies increase environmental protection and comply with the requirements of the Ministry of Environmental Protection, the increase in on-grid tariffs is just around the corner. Hua Quan Securities analyst Bai Quanwu said that as the electricity price adjustment clearly provides for thermal power companies to meet the standards of environmental protection departments, can increase the on-grid tariff, the recent consultation of environmental protection related industries increased significantly.
Pipeline innovation
A single price reform is difficult to break "every change will rise," the problem still needs the mechanism in addition to monopoly.
In the frequent occurrence of "haze fog", it is clear that price means are gradually replacing administrative means to become the main force shaping the environmental protection electricity price system.
Only the method of “removing the Western Wall and repairing the Western Wall†can obviously not solve the root cause of the high cost of natural gas power generation. The same problem also appears in other new energy power generation fields.
“If the structure and regulation of the natural gas industry are not reformed, simple price reform will only become a synonym for monopoly prices, and the reform costs will eventually be borne by downstream companies and consumers who use gas.†This is Treasure Island Natural Gas. Market analyst Ma Ji's view.
When discussions on the adjustment of on-grid tariffs are in full swing, Sinopec's new Guangdong-Zhejiang-Zhejiang pipeline will soon become the first long-distance main pipeline for the transportation of natural gas in the form of “substitutionâ€. This pipeline was seen by the industry as a breakthrough point for breaking the monopoly of long-distance oil and gas transmission pipelines. After the construction of the new Guangdong-Zhejiang-based pipeline has chosen “substitutionâ€, downstream users will have the opportunity to cross the pipeline to operate the company and negotiate with the upstream gas supplier directly to determine the gas supply price. The new Guangdong-Zhejiang-based pipeline operating company will only charge users for pipeline transportation fees approved by the National Development and Reform Commission while transporting natural gas on a “non-discriminatory†basis.
“Although from the current point of view, this pipeline is controlled by Sinopec. However, the national plan is to specify that the volume of gas supplied by the pipeline during construction is much larger than that required by Sinopec, and the remaining part can be used for 'generations'. "Lost," not only does Sinopec's enthusiasm for investment is large, but other companies wishing to enjoy the service of "generational losers" also have the enthusiasm for investment. This is a good way to break the monopoly in the pipeline and a breakthrough, and it is also a major trend." Liu Yijun thinks.
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