China's steel prospects are mixed

Recently, China is experiencing a difficult adjustment period of changing economic growth mode. The economic growth rate has slowed down noticeably. The inter-bank market funds are extremely tight. Some even claim that the “China version of the subprime mortgage crisis” will break out. Here, the Chinese steel industry is also experiencing the most difficult period in history; the Chinese steel market is also accompanied by macroeconomic adjustments and the development of the industry itself, which has been sluggish for a long time.

This status quo has attracted great attention from domestic and foreign public opinion and the industry. Many people are worried about the prospects of Chinese steel, and even pessimistic.

At present, how do you think about this situation? This is what we must think calmly.

For the industry dilemma, we must go through the process of “pain to self-confidence”. As the most important basic raw material industry in China's national economy, the steel industry is closely related to the Chinese economy. Every move of the macro economy will affect steel. Public opinion is highly concerned about the steel industry. If we look closely, we will find that even in the downturn of steel demand, some foreign institutions, enterprises, people, and public opinion still have "optimistic expectations" (mainly in the steel raw materials); there are also "pessimistic judgments" (mainly The performance is demeaning to China Steel). In fact, behind all kinds of remarks, there are intricate interests. For all of this, we all need to look at it calmly, not easily excited, not to panic. For all kinds of important "sensitive information" related to the steel industry, we must maintain a high degree of attention, but also be good at the authenticity of the bin. For some exaggerated forms or excessively pessimistic "singing speech", we must identify its true Intention, it is even more difficult to lose confidence in the future development of China's steel industry.

For the downturn in the steel market, we must sharpen the perception from "confusion to rationality." Needless to say, the former Chinese steel industry has a glorious performance, and it has a large army of several million people. The former steel market in China has rich profits, and it has a steel trade enterprise numbered several hundred thousand. But nowadays, not only the average profit rate of major domestic steel companies is almost exhausted, but steel traders are also carrying the ridicule of "fire prevention, anti-theft, anti-steel trade". Indeed, in the face of this huge and painful contrast, the industry is deeply confused about the future of China's steel market. However, after experiencing the tempering of time, we have gradually begun to change from confusion to rationality. Now, perhaps we are deeply rethinking that whenever steel prices plunge or skyrocket, we have repeatedly emphasized that the government should not intervene in the market and rely on the market to adjust supply and demand. Can it be verified in practice? The “production and circulation” of the steel industry, which is too large in the steel trade industry and overcapacity and low concentration, has already reached all the “conspirators” themselves. It is worth noting that both steel mills and traders have now taken the initiative to “adjust themselves”.

For the macro situation, we must tolerate the transition from “speed to quality”. The central government proposed that this year's economic policy goal is to "stable growth, prevent inflation, control risks, and strive for stability." The "control risk" here is financial risk, and the central government is highly vigilant. At the same time, the central government has clearly stated and stressed that it is necessary to adhere to the principle of accelerating the transformation of economic development, shifting the foothold of promoting development to improving quality and efficiency, and stimulating the development of new market entities to accelerate the formation of new economies. Development methods. However, this shift in economic growth is a price to pay, and perhaps we are currently experiencing and bearing the price. Over the past 30 years, China’s economic development has been magnificent. Every once in a while, there will be different versions of the “China’s economic collapse theory”. The other “collapse theory” involving politics has not been interrupted, but China has finally come over and Growing up; China’s achievements today are something that the outside world, including ourselves, has never expected. We have good reason for China’s future. After all, the strength of the Chinese economy today is no different from the past, and the means, resources and wisdom to solve the problem are even greater.

For China's steel, we must see the future from "potential to demand." It is not a bad thing to question the Chinese economy and China's steel development. It will allow us to reflect more deeply on the past and look ahead. In the current downturn in the steel market, we don't have to be too pessimistic, there is every reason to build confidence in the future, because – the great policy of China's reform and opening up has been going on for more than 30 years, and will continue to push China forward in the years to come. Development; a stable domestic political environment has lasted for almost 30 years. This is the fundamental guarantee for China's economic and social development. No country in the world has such a large population of China and such a huge potential market. The potential of China's economic development is Unparalleled in historical experience and experience in other countries, this potential is still unpredictable so far; China's industrialization, informatization, urbanization, and internationalization will form a huge economic growth synergy; joining the World Trade Organization will make China's economy and The rapid integration of the world economy has expanded the market scale of Chinese products and stimulated the vitality of enterprises; China is an active participant in economic globalization, accelerating global industrial transfer, accelerating personnel turnover, and promoting global economic development, China will benefit from it; China Continue to accelerate the implementation of the strategy of developing the western region and revitalize the old industrial bases such as the Northeast A series of regional strategy, the strategy of central China, the eastern part of the lead in the development of major strategic development strategy, China will form a plurality of economic growth pole.

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China's economic fundamentals will not change overnight. The sense of urgency and pessimism are two kinds of nature; the prospect of China's steel may not be bright, and it may not be bleak.

The prospects for China's steel industry depend on today's choices. As long as we apply an optimistic attitude, a sense of urgency, and dialectical thinking, and strive to resolve conflicts, China's steel industry must still be full of great potential.

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