Abstract The long-running EU's dispute over the Sino-Singapore is about to be finalized in the near future. This case is related to the dramatic changes in the global solar industry, and the global industry is holding its breath. As the preliminary ruling results are expected to be announced from June 5th to June 8th, the information of all parties has been flying before, Reuters...
The long-awaited EU's dispute over the Sino-Singapore is about to be finalized in the near future. This case is related to the dramatic changes in the global solar industry, and the global industry is holding its breath. As the preliminary ruling results are expected to be announced from June 5th to June 8th, before the news of all parties is over, the EU's anti-dumping duties on solar panels in the mainland have been completed, and the average tax rate will reach 47%. Effective on June 6, this level is more serious than the 30% tax rate estimated by the previous market. If this tax rate is established, Chinese producers will lose their advantage, and Taiwan ranks as the world's second largest solar energy producer. Taiwan's production capacity is bound to be more sought-after. . The global trade war in the solar industry started in 2012, and the common enemy is the Chinese solar industry. At the beginning of last year, the US Department of Commerce ruled that the anti-dumping tax rate of China's first-line solar plants on US exports was as high as 35% (according to different corporate tax rates of 31.14-249.96%). In September, the EU sent a double-reverse investigation to China. However, unlike the United States, Europe was still the world's largest solar market last year. This "the biggest market trade war against the largest producers" compared to the US double-counter case. The impact is even more significant.
For this reason, the EU’s anti-dumping investigation into China’s solar energy products and the anti-dumping investigations by the Chinese anti-EU against the US and South Korea’s polysilicon have now entered the dilemma of “no penalty, no penaltyâ€, for the EU and China. In terms of any country's opening of a trade war, it is feared that it will lead to a two-game failure. The enterprises that initiated anti-dumping investigations by the EU and China are also opposed by other solar energy companies in Taiwan, forming a multi-party battle. For this reason, the preliminary ruling of the EU's double-reverse investigation has been postponed, from February to March after the two sessions in China, and then from March to June, any result may lead to the whole body.
In the short-term, if the EU imposes heavy taxes on China, the short-term Taiwan battery industry's OEM orders from China will certainly jump. But Taiwanese companies benefit from the transfer of orders is not a long-term plan, China will definitely find other ways, may be Moving production capacity overseas, or looking for local industry players to seek joint ventures/strategic alliances, but the Chinese industry is currently not well funded due to the dire stagnation of financial conditions in the past few years, and the capacity to move overseas is not a success, so it is also Stretching the time when China relies on Taiwan's production capacity.
The Taiwanese industry is unanimously optimistic about the "fisher's profit". The general market estimates that if the EU classifies China with the same 30% tax rate as the US double-counter, then the tax rate "China production" will have no cost advantage, but instead will pay more. The more, with the addition of this punitive tariff, China's output module cost increased by 0.13-0.14 US dollars / WATT, the price will rise to 0.8 US dollars / WATT, has been higher than the current spot market solar module price of about 0.7 US dollars, Under this circumstance, the cost advantage of China's solar module is not as good as that of MIT with excellent cost performance, let alone the tax rate of 47% and 60% will be re-classed this morning.
It is estimated that the current solar cell production capacity in Taiwan is only 8GW. If the EU preliminary results result in the loss of China's production, the demand for Taiwan's transfer orders is expected to reach 20GW. The production capacity of Taiwan's solar cells is more precious, and the situation of short supply will be expanded. Under this circumstance, the Taiwanese factory certainly has more room for price increases, and the manufacturers with higher capacity are expected to benefit more.
In addition to the solar cell industry, in terms of Taiwan's second largest wafer production supply chain, it involves whether the EU's preliminary ruling on China's double-counter case extends to the components in the solar module, and whether it is prohibited to be made in China. If even the components are included in the double-reverse range, Taiwan's silicon wafers will also become a hot commodity immediately; on the other hand, after the opening of the European Union, China also intends to retaliate against its polysilicon class import tariffs, which will Pushing up the price of polysilicon, and the price of silicon wafers is also expected to rise, which is conducive to Taiwan's wafer sales return to profitability.
The research institute EnergyTrend said that the current range of Chinese module quotations in the EU is mainly in the range of €0.52/W to €0.58/W. Based on this price benchmark, the current ROI of the EU system case is about 8%. Once the module price increases by more than 30% due to the application of punitive tariffs, and the German subsidy amount will be cut 1.8% from May, the system's return on investment (IRR) will be reduced by more than 1 percentage point, which is unfavorable for the related investment case. Undertake.
In addition, EnergyTrend also believes that if the double-reverse investigation is established, considering the production cost and the speed of resuming work, the Chinese industry will accelerate the movement of module capacity transfer. In addition to signing the OEM with the local industry, it will consider the industrial settlement, market potential, With transportation and production costs, Southeast Asia may benefit from it and become the main overseas production base for Chinese players in the future. As long as the EU judgment is established, the short-term Taiwanese industry can still benefit from the transfer effect, and the production capacity and price can remain bright. Eye performance.
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