Monoammonium is mainly stabilized in the short term

Recently, with the beginning of light storage, the northeast compound fertilizer manufacturers started one after another, but production is just at this stage. Although the compound fertilizer company's resumption of work led to the procurement of raw materials, but because manufacturers have always been cautious about the market, And the reserve of raw materials is one after another, and it is generally purchased on demand, so the current purchase volume is limited. The price of monoammonium phosphate has been in a stable state of low price recently. Currently, the mainstream factory price of 55% ammonium phosphate is between RMB 2,300 and 2,250/ton, and the transaction price is around RMB 2250-2350/ton, and the mainstream arrival price in the Northeast is 2400. -2450 yuan/ton.

Although most compound fertilizer manufacturers have already sold out winter storage prices, the volume of market transactions is not good, so the price of raw materials monoammonium phosphate rebounded weakly in the short term. There are also insiders pointed out that the current price of monoammonium phosphate has reached the edge of the cost, is expected to decline again later this year is unlikely, the market price or will be running smoothly.

It takes time for the market to pick up again. Yu Chongliang, Vice Minister of Supply for Heilongjiang Aonong Fertilizer Co., Ltd. said in an interview: “The factory's compound fertilizer has just started production, and downstream distribution is also in the rising stage, but we have not yet pricing it. Because the price of diammonium phosphate will affect the sales volume of compound fertilizer, and the price of diammonium in the early stage is uncertain, so we have to wait until next February to be pricing, downstream dealers are also getting goods without pricing.The raw materials are also purchased, the manufacturers also have Interest rates and other preferential policies, 55% ammonium bicarbonate to the northeast station price in the 2400-2450 yuan / ton." When a reporter asked whether the price of ammonium has been a trough, Yu Chongliang that "from the cost of a single ammonium This price has long been a trough, and the recent purchases and inquiries are more likely to be of some confidence. During this time, the price has not dropped and it is relatively stable."

For the impact of compound fertilizer production resumption on the ammonium, Chongliang said: "It is certain that the season of stocking is coming. If the compound fertilizer is not produced again, it may miss the season of downstream stocking. Now that compound fertilizer production has only just begun, Whether or not it really reached the peak demand season will also be wait and see.” Yu Chongliang also believes that the changes in the price of monoammonium in recent years are indeed relatively large, so their companies are also gradually storing goods according to the production plan. He said: “Because the current phase of compound fertilizer There is no large-scale demand in the downstream, even if we start to take the goods, we do not hurry to stock again, because the raw materials are sufficient to meet the current production needs.The raw materials of our company's reserves are basically the same as in previous years, and are based on production. Planned preparations, guaranteed quantities, and a certain amount of inventory at the same time, production and stocking are all relatively normal."

In response, Guo Yongliang, general manager of Jilin Yongle Fengnian Fertilizer Industry Co., Ltd., also expressed approval. He said: “At present, the compound fertilizer manufacturers have just resumed production, but the downstream transaction volume is small, and the raw materials have been continuously stockpiled. The current reserves are sufficient at this stage. The production of raw materials, so this year's reserves of raw materials compared with the same period in previous years, 50%, the purchase of raw materials in the later period will also be determined based on the needs of the downstream, but also to share the risk."

The price of mono-ammonium will not fall at least. For the problem that overcapacity will affect the post-ammonium price, Yu Chongliang believes: “Now the Northeast market has gradually started, and the price of mono-ammonium will not drop at least. Since private enterprises in an ammonium plant are mostly, if If the price of mono-ammonium is too low, if manufacturers lose too much, then they will stop work. The shutdown of many manufacturers from October to November proves this, and the production capacity of an ammonium can be adjusted by stopping production and reducing production. When the highest peak was stopped during the previous period, The rate of monoammonium starters nationwide is only 20% to 30%.” Guo Yongliang also said: “The price of ammonium has reached a low point, and the market outlook will not be lower for a single ammonium. After all, the Northeast Reserve starts, and everyone needs to use it. A few years of compound fertilizer sales in the Northeast can still be."

This year, the northeastern corn is better overall, and it is expected that the farmers will increase their production and increase income, but it is not enough to boost the confidence of the entire market. Yu Chongliang believes that there are still many factors that affect the post-ammonium market, such as the national export tariff policy, but in the final analysis, it is determined by the relationship between market supply and demand. All this seems to be the demand for spring plowing.