Out of expectations for the policy, the parts of the new energy vehicles benefited from the equity adjustment in the current round.
The three support policies for new energy vehicles were intensively introduced.
The four ministries and commissions jointly issued a document to determine the pilot projects for private subsidies for the purchase of new energy vehicles in Shanghai, Changchun, Shenzhen, Hangzhou and Hefei.
The Ministry of Finance, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued the “Energy-Saving Products for the Benefit of the People†project to promote the implementation of energy-saving vehicles, and the engine displacement is 1.6L and below, and the gasoline and diesel passenger vehicles that meet the specified comprehensive fuel consumption limit (including Hybrid vehicles and dual-fuel vehicles are included in the “Energy-Saving Products for the Benefits of the People†project, which is promoted nationwide. The central government gives one-off subsidies to buyers for 3,000 yuan per vehicle.
The Ministry of Finance issued the Notice on Expanding the Demonstration and Promotion of Energy Saving and New Energy Vehicles in the Public Service Sector. Based on the existing 13 pilot cities, seven pilot cities including Tianjin, Haikou, Zhengzhou, Xiamen, Suzhou, Tangshan and Guangzhou were added.
It is still a "burning period" within three years.
We believe that for the new energy passenger vehicle industry chain as a whole, within 3-5 years, it will still be the stage of R&D, road test and accumulation of empirical data, and the 2012 new energy vehicle market proposed by the Automotive Industry and Adjustment Plan. The goal of achieving a 5% share is very stressful (expected to exceed 900,000 units). The industrialization of electric vehicles also needs to address several key issues: endurance, infrastructure construction, and durability of automotive power batteries. It takes time.
However, whether it is from the perspective of energy security or environmental protection, the driving force and strength of the country to promote the development of new energy vehicles are unquestionable. In this context, the driving force of the relevant company's stock price comes from the “expectation and profitability raceâ€. In 3-5 years, it is mainly driven by expectations. We believe that before the electric vehicle penetration rate reaches 3-5%, it is still a continuous large-scale. The process of investing and “burning money†makes it difficult to achieve substantial profits.
Thereafter, the market structure will gradually stabilize, some enterprises will be eliminated, and high-quality companies will achieve profitability. In the previous stage, due to the expected natural instability, stock prices are prone to violent fluctuations, and related stocks are easy to be speculated. However, it is not easy to choose long-term investment varieties. In the latter stage, with the differentiation of corporate profits, stock prices will be significantly different. .
The key to developing electric vehicles is electric motors, electric power steering gear and batteries. At present, there are still gaps between domestic enterprises and foreign countries. There are many companies involved in the current situation, and more companies are expected to participate, but it is quite difficult to judge who will eventually win.
In the short term, our suggestion is that investors with risk preferences can take the opportunity to participate in the speculation of relevant stocks. In the long run, we choose companies with a larger market share of the entire vehicle.
The subsidy is in line with expectations
The new document clearly points out the new energy vehicle technology path: the notice clearly states that the subsidized new energy vehicles are plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles and pure electric passenger vehicles, which indicates the development of domestic automakers. The direction, that is, high-mix hybrid vehicles and pure electric vehicles will get more policy tilt, and enterprises that choose this technology route have certain advantages.
The subsidy is in line with expectations: the detailed rules indicate that for the new energy vehicles that meet the conditions, the OEMs will be subsidized according to 3,000 yuan/kWh, and the maximum subsidy for plug-in hybrid vehicles and pure electric passenger vehicles will be 50,000 yuan each. 60,000 yuan. The subsidies in line with market expectations. But it should be noted that at present, new energy overall cost of the car is still high, even under the subsidy ceiling subsidies, the price will remain above the same power, the configuration of a conventional car, it is also necessary to finance local charging stations, professional spaces, tariff concessions and other aspects of the use of subsidies.
Car benefit shares
Passenger cars into the "recommended models directory" of companies to obtain first-mover advantage. The rules stipulate that the automobile enterprises applying for subsidies must have included in the "Recommended Model Catalogue" for their new energy vehicles. Up to now, there are more than 100 models in the country to enter the catalogue, of which there are 27 passenger cars, of which pure electric and fuel cell vehicles account for more than 50%, belonging to FAW Car, Changan Automobile, Shanghai Auto, Chery Automobile, BYD and other nine companies, which will undoubtedly achieve greater first-mover advantage.
The subsidy for the promotion of energy-saving vehicles will have a substantial impact on some car companies. The “Energy-Saving Vehicle Promotion Implementation Rules†subsidies include gasoline and diesel passenger vehicles (including hybrid vehicles and dual-fuel vehicles) with displacements of 1.6L or less. The prices of hybrid and dual-fuel vehicles are generally higher than the equivalent power. For the configured steam and diesel passenger cars, the one-time subsidy of 3,000 yuan per vehicle is relatively small for such vehicles.
Therefore, we believe that the biggest beneficiaries of this policy are economical traditional fuel passenger vehicles with small displacement and good fuel economy. Under the premise that the purchase tax enjoys a 7.5% preferential purchase tax rate, and then enjoy the 3,000 yuan discount, the superimposed preferential margin is large, so the economic passenger car that meets the comprehensive fuel limit of the policy has the greatest benefit, and the listed companies include Changan Automobile. Jianghuai Automobile, Shanghai Automotive, and Dongan Power (economical car engine), Yunnei Power (car diesel engine).
The expansion of the promotion scope of the “Thirteen Cities and Thousands of Vehicles†new energy vehicles is beneficial to bus companies. In January 2009, the demonstration and promotion of energy-saving and new energy vehicles (thousands of thirteen cities) selected 13 cities including Beijing and Shanghai as the first batch of pilot cities to promote public transportation, rental, official and sanitation in the above cities. The promotion of the use of new energy vehicles in the public service areas such as the postal service has achieved certain results. In fact, the largest orders are concentrated in the field of bus buses in new energy cities. At present, the number of new energy vehicle promotion cities in the public service sector has expanded to 20, which will bring new demands to the new energy bus industry. Among the listed companies, Futian Automobile has benefited a lot. In 2009, Futian Automobile's new energy bus sales reached more than 700 vehicles, and it is in the forefront of the industry in terms of new energy bus market expansion.
Parts benefit stock
In fact, the profit of new energy buses is still concentrated in key parts and components, and the profit of passenger cars is very low. Listed companies involved in the parts and components of new energy vehicles include: CITIC Guoan (000839), Huafang Textile (600273), Desai Battery (000049), Fengfan (600482), China Baoan (000009), Shanshan (600884) ), Hengdian East Magnetic (002056), Dangsheng Technology (300073), Jiangsu Guotai (002091), Xinzhoubang (300037).
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