Among the many futures investment types, due to their own fundamental constraints, the Shanghai aluminum market as a whole is in full swing; small fluctuations in the face of the disk, lack of funds, and weak speculative power have also restricted the further development of the Shanghai aluminum market. development of. With the gradual improvement of the fundamentals and the stimulation of LME aluminum to the impact of 2,000 US dollars, the Shanghai aluminum market has experienced heavy volume growth on Wednesday, and each contract has risen sharply by 300 to 400 yuan per ton. Compared with the final stage, it was a gratifying scene that "nothing is coming at last." Compared with the trend of international aluminum prices and other futures varieties, Shanghai Aluminum’s trend has always maintained a tepid pattern of oscillation. It is largely due to the lack of speculative funds. The expansion of positions cannot be further suppressed as well. The market has participated in the enthusiasm, and the recent hot market of Soybean and Shanghai Copper is, to a certain extent, a key factor that causes investors' investment interest to deviate from the Shanghai aluminum market. With the gradual increase in the investment risk and difficulty of Soybean and Shanghai copper markets, Shanghai Aluminum has evolved into a better investment target for investors currently compared to the Shanghai aluminum market where the recent technical and fundamental improvements have gradually improved. This may also be an important driving force for the Shanghai aluminum market to break through the uptrend on Wednesday. Since January 1, 2005, China has cancelled the export tax rebate of 8% for aluminum, and imposed an export tax of 5% on aluminum exports. The change in policy has led to an increase in the export costs of the domestic aluminum market. According to newly released China Customs data, China exported a total of 114,930 tons of primary aluminum in January 2005, a year-on-year increase of 39.6%. Total exports in 2004 increased by only 36.1% over 2003, which includes December 2004. It is expected that the cancellation of export tax rebates and the resumption of the levy of 5% of export tariffs, while rushing to rush to export 223,000 tons before the new policy takes effect). The preliminary data released by the International Aluminum Association (IAI) at the end of February showed that in the end of January 2005, all forms of aluminum inventories held by Western producers (excluding finished finished products) increased to 3.223 million tons, and by the end of December 2004, It was 3.182 million tons, of which the raw aluminum inventory increased to 1.853 million tons at the end of January 2005, and was 1.778 million tons at the end of December 2004. Under the premise that the current cost of aluminum exports has increased, along with the improvement of the international economic situation and the increase in demand, the continued increase in export volume has undoubtedly fully demonstrated the global aluminum market's overall tight supply situation. This constitutes the international aluminum industry. The important support that prices continue to hit highs. At present, the annual consumption of aluminum in China is about 6 million tons. Last year, the domestic output of electrolytic aluminum is estimated to be 6.6 million tons. However, due to the government's strict control over the electrolytic aluminum industry and the accelerated adjustment of the structure of the electrolytic aluminum industry, it will most likely lead to a reduction in the output of electrolytic aluminum in 2005, which in turn will have a positive boost to the entire aluminum market. On the other hand, the conversion of some small electrolytic aluminum plants into aluminum processing plants after shutting down also objectively stimulated consumption of certain primary aluminum. Some analysts predict that the consumption of aluminum in China will increase from the current 6 million tons to 9.3 million tons in 2008. Therefore, from the current national policy on the aluminum industry, the growth rate of electrolytic aluminum production in the later period will be far less than the demand. The growth rate will have positive and long-term support for Shanghai Aluminum and even the international market. With the transfer of international funds to the base metal market once again, the entire LME base metal has seen a significant increase, and the LME aluminum market has also emerged in a continuous trend. From a technical point of view, LME aluminum undergoes a rapid pullback after a two-stroke shock of US$2,000. This in turn confirms the strong support area at the previous stage of the platform of US$1,880. Therefore, the market may not effectively wear through 1880 to 1900 at LME aluminum. Under the regional premise, the possibility of LME aluminum reaching new heights gradually increased. Compared with the Shanghai aluminum market, Wednesday's breakthrough has driven the entire technical area to be optimistic. The better shape of the Zhou K line also strongly predicts that the Shanghai aluminum market will have a certain upside. In a nutshell: With the gradual improvement of the fundamentals of aluminum in Shanghai, the production cost of electrolytic aluminum has remained high, and there has been a certain increase in the demand for aluminum in Shanghai aluminum; and the effective participation of speculative funds and the improvement in technology on Wednesday have undoubtedly become Its rising power is an important trigger, and the overall strength of the Shanghai aluminum market in the latter period has thus been fully opened. Therefore, the operation is recommended: buy on a bargain, boldly hold. Source: China International Futures Brokerage Co., Ltd.
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