The price of domestically produced mines has been declining since mid-April, and all parties in the industrial chain have been affected by the obvious impact. Traders have left the market one after another, and the mineral processing enterprises have been forced to shut down. Under the bleak market, the time node came to the turn of May and June. With the NDRC expediting the approval of major infrastructure projects, the central bank to cut interest rates, and lowering oil prices, the ore market ushered in a wave of phased rebounds. The typical representative of Tangshan Zunhua 66% wet base tax-free market tonne unit price rebounded from 820 first line to above 850, and the ore dressing enterprises still have no signs of sealing, from point to face, the main iron ore producing area in the north is asking for the price. Driven by the psychology of “buy up and not buy downâ€, market activity has increased rapidly. This round of price strength is built on the control policy. As the fundamental real estate policy has not seen the loosening, the diminishing effect of the policy will gradually appear. Therefore, looking forward to the next stage, the ore market's own value law will be more prominent. We will open up the fog here and return to the ore market itself. We will analyze it in the following aspects. First of all, from the rhythm of steel mill procurement, since the mining price plummeted in the fourth quarter of 2011, combined with the background of the national monetary tightening, steel mills have reduced their own inventory cycle, and minimize the occupation of liquidity by raw material inventory. The ensuing problem is that the demand for objective replenishment of steel mills has always existed, and the performance of terminal demand is relatively stable. This factor restricts the space for the fall of future mineral prices. Secondly, from the perspective of resource supply, with the price strengthening, the situation of the second-choice enterprises with no independent mines in the early stage has been significantly changed, and the operating rate of the major mining areas in the north has rebounded. According to the survey, the current rate of re-establishment of the plant in the Xingxing area has exceeded 80%, and the market in Tangshan and the Northeast is 60%. The acceleration of the resumption of work of small and medium-sized ore dressing enterprises will inevitably increase the supply of market resources, weaken the bargaining power of suppliers, and suppress the strengthening of mineral prices in the next stage. Third, from the perspective of the import mine market, domestic iron ore imports in May reached 63.84 million tons, a record high. Previously, the market expected that India will enter the rainy season from June 1st, and the shipments will be significantly reduced. However, due to the delay of the Indian rainy season, the actual shipments are still not obvious. In addition, the Australian Mining Leasing Tax Act will be officially implemented on July 1, and the resource cost of Australia is bound to increase significantly. In the next stage, the price of imported ore is also difficult to get out of the unilateral market. A stable and volatile shock will be a high probability event. Finally, from the perspective of external factors, the domestic refined oil prices have been lowered one after another, alleviating the pressure on the production and transportation costs of the mineral processing enterprises; however, in June, during the busy season, some enterprises were nervous and the operating rate was affected. In addition, poor weather conditions will also have an impact on the market. The South China region is still rainy and rainy. The iron-containing water content has not changed, and the East China region will enter the Meiyu season in June. The peripheral influence factors are intertwined and have no decisive influence. On the whole, we believe that the price of iron powder in the second half of June to July will show a turbulent pattern with limited exploration and limited downside space. With the loss of a series of leading steel mills in Baosteel, Wuhan Iron and Steel and Anshan Iron and Steel in July, the price will be lowered. The impact of gradual digestion, Fubao Information believes that during the July and August period, the domestic mining market still has an upward breakthrough opportunity.
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