The reporter from the "First Financial Daily" interviewed Xu Xiaojie, a researcher at the Institute of World Economics and Politics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, and the former director of the Institute of Overseas Investment and Environment at the China National Petroleum Corporation's Institute of Economics and Technology. In his opinion, Libya’s strategic value is prominent. Col. Qaddafi’s stepping down may be an opportunity for Chinese companies to enter the oil field in Libya, but it also tests China’s oil diplomacy.
Not related to the interests of China's First Financial Daily: For China, what is the strategic value of Libya's oil?
Xu Xiaojie: Although Libya is far away from China, Sino-Libyan oil trade accounts for a small proportion of the total oil trade between the two countries. However, this does not mean that China does not pay attention to the situation in Libya and China’s interests. On the contrary, Libya's importance to China is self-evident, regardless of whether it is from the perspective of the responsibility of major countries or from the perspective of oil interests.
Libya is located on the southern shore of the Mediterranean Sea, on the northern end of the African continent, east of Egypt, through the Mediterranean Sea directly to the European continent, east to Egypt via the Red Sea, and then to the Indian Ocean, strategic location, geographical significance. In terms of oil, Libya has the largest oil reserves in Africa, but its pre-war production is fourth in Africa and has huge development potential. In 2010, Libya exported approximately 7.5 million tons of crude oil to China, which was 3% of the country's crude oil imports. In addition, Libya's crude oil contains low quantities and high quality, which meets the needs of many refineries in Asia and is difficult to replace in the international oil market, including Saudi crude oil.
Gaddafi also planned to carry out "oil and gas swaps" with Egypt to build oil pipelines through Egypt to the Red Sea, and then to export Libya's oil to Asian countries. In addition, the southeastern end of Libya is adjacent to Sudan and Chad. If CNPC can operate well in Libya, it can be connected with the oil development projects of the two countries mentioned above and form a situation of integration and development of the upper, middle, and lower reaches in North Africa.
Daily: In the Qaddafi era, what efforts have CNPC made in entering Libya’s oil sector?
Xu Xiaojie: During the Gaddafi period, Chinese oil companies tried to enter the oil field in Libya, but it was not smooth. In 2005, China National Petroleum Exploration and Development Company, a subsidiary of CNPC that specializes in overseas oil and gas investment operations, won the bid for a 28.5% share of the Block in the Pelagian Basin offshore Block 16-4 in the northwestern Mediterranean coast of Libya. rights and interests. In 2009, the company submitted an equity purchase plan to Verenex, a Canadian energy company based in Libya, for US$460 million, but did not receive approval from Libya. Verenex owns a 50% development interest in the 47 districts of the Ghadames basin in Libya and shares 13.7% of its oil production with an Indonesian energy company. The remaining 86.3% is owned by the Libyan government.
This shows that for China, Libya is not out of reach, but an oil and gas resource country with important strategic value. At present, the Middle East affairs are at the center of global affairs. The outbreak of the Middle East and Northeast Africa this year not only concerns the vital interests of China in the Arab world, but also serves as an opportunity for China to further intervene in affairs of the Middle East and exert its influence. At present, Libya has become a test ground for the games of the world's major powers. Libya will surely usher in a new oil game, which is a huge test for China's oil diplomacy.
Can I have a glass of daily newspaper: What is the opportunity of China National Petroleum Corporation in the “post-Gaddafi era�
Xu Xiaojie: NATO countries such as Italy, Germany, and France are Libya’s most important oil investor and importer, and it is precisely under the support of NATO air power led by these countries that Libyan opposition forces have been able to overthrow the Qaddafi regime. . China has abstained from voting when the United Nations decided to crack down on Qaddafi’s regime. There have been reports that the Libyan opposition had stated that it would need to revisit the oil contracts signed by Qaddafi’s countries with China, Russia, and Brazil.
However, in my opinion, in the pattern of Libya’s oil interests after the war, China is not without opportunities. Regarding the conflict in Libya, China has always insisted on respecting the Libyan people’s choices and hopes that the situation in Libya will return to stability as soon as possible, and expresses its willingness to work with the international community to play an active role in Libya’s future reconstruction. In fact, in the recent past, China has strengthened its ties with the Libyan opposition and conducted a large amount of humanitarian assistance to Libya.
In July 2011, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that China will provide Libya with humanitarian assistance worth 50 million yuan. On August 19th, the first batch of emergency humanitarian relief materials provided by the Chinese Red Cross Society to Libya arrived in Benghazi. This batch of materials included rice, oil and medicines, totalling 90 tons. This important action is tantamount to sending it in the snow. Libya’s opposition leader, National Transitional Council (NTC)** Jalil, thanked the Chinese Red Cross for providing emergency humanitarian assistance.
These humanitarian aids not only embody China's role as a responsible big country, but also increase relations between China and the Libyan opposition. According to the "Financial Times" report, the Chinese government has sent a temporary delegation to observe the situation in Libya and maintain communication with the NTC. Recently, NTC "Prime Minister" and my friend Djibril said that Libya will respect all the contracts signed by Gaddafi's government with Chinese enterprises and welcome Chinese companies to return to Libya and hope that China will rebuild in Libya and the two countries. The full cooperation plays a role. Surprisingly, some British and German officials also expressed the hope that China will play a role in the reconstruction of Libya after the war.
Daily: How to look at the future direction of China's oil diplomacy from this conflict in Libya?
Xu Xiaojie: Considering China's important interests in Libya and North Africa and the characteristics of the “post-Gaddafi era,†China’s oil diplomacy in Libya and Africa must make necessary adjustments. China's oil diplomacy must first move forward with the posture of a big country. It must demonstrate a positive, outgoing attitude. It should "make a difference" in the Middle East and "do a great job" in individual countries and issues.
In Libya in the post-Qadhafi era, China's oil diplomacy still has great room for cooperation. China should make its own voice in rebuilding Libya and maintaining stability in Libya, reflecting the responsibilities, contributions, and influence that a big country should have.
During Gaddafi's administration, due to various non-commercial factors, China was unable to successfully enter the upstream exploration and development fields of Libya's oil, mainly based on engineering and technical services. Gaddafi’s regime’s “collapse†may break the stalemate in the oil cooperation between China and Libya, or open the door for Chinese companies to re-enter Libya’s oil upstream.
I estimate that after the war, Libya may adopt the same international bidding practice as Iraq to re-plan the pattern of oil upstream development. In this respect, China is not without advantages. The key lies in how to comprehensively develop its own capabilities.
At present, Western countries such as the United States and Europe are immersed in the domestic economy due to debt crisis and other issues, while China still maintains a strong economic construction strength. China can continue to strengthen its humanitarian assistance to Libya. At the same time, it should use its own unique cooperation platform and cooperation mechanism, such as the China-Africa Cooperation Forum and China-Africa Development Forum, to strengthen investment and cooperation in Africa. It is suggested that China combine trade, **, oil investment and infrastructure construction in various ways to play a more direct role in Libya's oilfield recovery and pipeline construction.
Whether international bids can be successfully held depends on the development of the situation in Libya. China's investment in Libya also faces the issue of how to manage and avoid risks. The first thing to do is to manage risks. CNPC should do a good job in asset portfolio management and make a good combination of different assets in different regions and in the same country to improve its ability to avoid and control risks. Second, in strengthening its position to protect its own interests, China should also attach great importance to multilateral energy cooperation. Once again, China should actively participate in Libya’s post-war political stability and peacekeeping work, and create a good environment for future cooperation between China and Libya.
Not related to the interests of China's First Financial Daily: For China, what is the strategic value of Libya's oil?
Xu Xiaojie: Although Libya is far away from China, Sino-Libyan oil trade accounts for a small proportion of the total oil trade between the two countries. However, this does not mean that China does not pay attention to the situation in Libya and China’s interests. On the contrary, Libya's importance to China is self-evident, regardless of whether it is from the perspective of the responsibility of major countries or from the perspective of oil interests.
Libya is located on the southern shore of the Mediterranean Sea, on the northern end of the African continent, east of Egypt, through the Mediterranean Sea directly to the European continent, east to Egypt via the Red Sea, and then to the Indian Ocean, strategic location, geographical significance. In terms of oil, Libya has the largest oil reserves in Africa, but its pre-war production is fourth in Africa and has huge development potential. In 2010, Libya exported approximately 7.5 million tons of crude oil to China, which was 3% of the country's crude oil imports. In addition, Libya's crude oil contains low quantities and high quality, which meets the needs of many refineries in Asia and is difficult to replace in the international oil market, including Saudi crude oil.
Gaddafi also planned to carry out "oil and gas swaps" with Egypt to build oil pipelines through Egypt to the Red Sea, and then to export Libya's oil to Asian countries. In addition, the southeastern end of Libya is adjacent to Sudan and Chad. If CNPC can operate well in Libya, it can be connected with the oil development projects of the two countries mentioned above and form a situation of integration and development of the upper, middle, and lower reaches in North Africa.
Daily: In the Qaddafi era, what efforts have CNPC made in entering Libya’s oil sector?
Xu Xiaojie: During the Gaddafi period, Chinese oil companies tried to enter the oil field in Libya, but it was not smooth. In 2005, China National Petroleum Exploration and Development Company, a subsidiary of CNPC that specializes in overseas oil and gas investment operations, won the bid for a 28.5% share of the Block in the Pelagian Basin offshore Block 16-4 in the northwestern Mediterranean coast of Libya. rights and interests. In 2009, the company submitted an equity purchase plan to Verenex, a Canadian energy company based in Libya, for US$460 million, but did not receive approval from Libya. Verenex owns a 50% development interest in the 47 districts of the Ghadames basin in Libya and shares 13.7% of its oil production with an Indonesian energy company. The remaining 86.3% is owned by the Libyan government.
This shows that for China, Libya is not out of reach, but an oil and gas resource country with important strategic value. At present, the Middle East affairs are at the center of global affairs. The outbreak of the Middle East and Northeast Africa this year not only concerns the vital interests of China in the Arab world, but also serves as an opportunity for China to further intervene in affairs of the Middle East and exert its influence. At present, Libya has become a test ground for the games of the world's major powers. Libya will surely usher in a new oil game, which is a huge test for China's oil diplomacy.
Can I have a glass of daily newspaper: What is the opportunity of China National Petroleum Corporation in the “post-Gaddafi era�
Xu Xiaojie: NATO countries such as Italy, Germany, and France are Libya’s most important oil investor and importer, and it is precisely under the support of NATO air power led by these countries that Libyan opposition forces have been able to overthrow the Qaddafi regime. . China has abstained from voting when the United Nations decided to crack down on Qaddafi’s regime. There have been reports that the Libyan opposition had stated that it would need to revisit the oil contracts signed by Qaddafi’s countries with China, Russia, and Brazil.
However, in my opinion, in the pattern of Libya’s oil interests after the war, China is not without opportunities. Regarding the conflict in Libya, China has always insisted on respecting the Libyan people’s choices and hopes that the situation in Libya will return to stability as soon as possible, and expresses its willingness to work with the international community to play an active role in Libya’s future reconstruction. In fact, in the recent past, China has strengthened its ties with the Libyan opposition and conducted a large amount of humanitarian assistance to Libya.
In July 2011, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that China will provide Libya with humanitarian assistance worth 50 million yuan. On August 19th, the first batch of emergency humanitarian relief materials provided by the Chinese Red Cross Society to Libya arrived in Benghazi. This batch of materials included rice, oil and medicines, totalling 90 tons. This important action is tantamount to sending it in the snow. Libya’s opposition leader, National Transitional Council (NTC)** Jalil, thanked the Chinese Red Cross for providing emergency humanitarian assistance.
These humanitarian aids not only embody China's role as a responsible big country, but also increase relations between China and the Libyan opposition. According to the "Financial Times" report, the Chinese government has sent a temporary delegation to observe the situation in Libya and maintain communication with the NTC. Recently, NTC "Prime Minister" and my friend Djibril said that Libya will respect all the contracts signed by Gaddafi's government with Chinese enterprises and welcome Chinese companies to return to Libya and hope that China will rebuild in Libya and the two countries. The full cooperation plays a role. Surprisingly, some British and German officials also expressed the hope that China will play a role in the reconstruction of Libya after the war.
Daily: How to look at the future direction of China's oil diplomacy from this conflict in Libya?
Xu Xiaojie: Considering China's important interests in Libya and North Africa and the characteristics of the “post-Gaddafi era,†China’s oil diplomacy in Libya and Africa must make necessary adjustments. China's oil diplomacy must first move forward with the posture of a big country. It must demonstrate a positive, outgoing attitude. It should "make a difference" in the Middle East and "do a great job" in individual countries and issues.
In Libya in the post-Qadhafi era, China's oil diplomacy still has great room for cooperation. China should make its own voice in rebuilding Libya and maintaining stability in Libya, reflecting the responsibilities, contributions, and influence that a big country should have.
During Gaddafi's administration, due to various non-commercial factors, China was unable to successfully enter the upstream exploration and development fields of Libya's oil, mainly based on engineering and technical services. Gaddafi’s regime’s “collapse†may break the stalemate in the oil cooperation between China and Libya, or open the door for Chinese companies to re-enter Libya’s oil upstream.
I estimate that after the war, Libya may adopt the same international bidding practice as Iraq to re-plan the pattern of oil upstream development. In this respect, China is not without advantages. The key lies in how to comprehensively develop its own capabilities.
At present, Western countries such as the United States and Europe are immersed in the domestic economy due to debt crisis and other issues, while China still maintains a strong economic construction strength. China can continue to strengthen its humanitarian assistance to Libya. At the same time, it should use its own unique cooperation platform and cooperation mechanism, such as the China-Africa Cooperation Forum and China-Africa Development Forum, to strengthen investment and cooperation in Africa. It is suggested that China combine trade, **, oil investment and infrastructure construction in various ways to play a more direct role in Libya's oilfield recovery and pipeline construction.
Whether international bids can be successfully held depends on the development of the situation in Libya. China's investment in Libya also faces the issue of how to manage and avoid risks. The first thing to do is to manage risks. CNPC should do a good job in asset portfolio management and make a good combination of different assets in different regions and in the same country to improve its ability to avoid and control risks. Second, in strengthening its position to protect its own interests, China should also attach great importance to multilateral energy cooperation. Once again, China should actively participate in Libya’s post-war political stability and peacekeeping work, and create a good environment for future cooperation between China and Libya.
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