Alcohol, ether companies operating profit! Why?

Due to the increase in the number of companies that stopped production and the decrease in supply, since August, the domestic alcohol ether market has changed its previous pattern of persistently falling prices, and it has gone through a wave of strong rebounds. For example, in the Northwestern region last week, the ex-factory price of methanol was 2,300 yuan. Tons, ex-factory price of dimethyl ether was RMB 3,500/ton, which was RMB 300/tonne and RMB 350/ton higher than that at the end of July, and shipments were relatively smooth.

At present, the ex-factory price of methanol in the northwest region has generally risen to 1900~2200 yuan, the ex-factory price of methanol in central China has risen to 2050~2350 yuan, and the ex-factory price of methanol in the northeast, north, south, southwest, and east China has also increased by 150 to 300 yuan. Supported by rising methanol prices, the national dimethyl ether ex-factory price also rose by 250 to 380 yuan compared with the end of July. The local area was close to the highest level in the year. The decrease in supply, and the oversupply of supply exceeds demand is the main reason for the rebound of alcohol ether prices.

At the same time as the supply of methanol is reduced, the domestic demand for methanol has not decreased. Currently, the traditional methanol consumption industries such as formaldehyde, acetic acid, pesticides, solvents, methyl tert-butyl ether, etc. have obviously recovered, although the operating rate is not high, but the scale is With continuous expansion, the absolute demand for methanol has been magnified; in the methanol fuel industry, which accounts for 25% of the total methanol consumption, methanol is being promoted in more and more provinces and cities. The demand quietly warmed up.

In addition, another major consumer market in methanol - dimethyl ether field, due to the AQSIQ and other four departments jointly affected by the joint rectification, the industry operating rate dropped sharply to 20% or so, the supply suddenly decreased, but to stimulate its price rise. Even so, the current price of dimethyl ether is still more than 1,000 yuan lower than that of liquefied gas. This means that each blended with 10% of dimethyl ether to the liquefied gas can make more than 200 yuan profit, and blending 25% is more likely to be obtained. Lee is more than 500 yuan. Under the temptation of huge profits, the role of DME "Lanling" is greatly reduced. It is understood that except for Guangdong, Shanghai and some other provinces and cities, DME ENERGY ORDER has received immediate results. The dimethyl ether market in most provinces and cities, after experiencing a short period of cooling in July, began to heat up again. DME producers also actively explored markets such as aerosols and refrigerants other than civilian fuels, and achieved success. , Boost dimethyl ether prices rose instead of falling.

However, for the late trend of the alcohol ether market, the industry is not optimistic. Because domestic methanol production capacity has been over 50%, DME production capacity is more than 2/3 surplus, and new production capacity is still released. In the case of serious excess production capacity Next, every rebound is difficult to sustain. Once the alcohol ether price exceeds the cost and continues, many production cut-off enterprises will increase the equipment load or start the production equipment, so that the production of alcohol ethers will increase rapidly, and the market will oversupply again, suppressing the price downwards.

If the prices of domestic coal, gas, water, electricity and transportation do not change significantly in the later period, the ex-factory price of domestic methanol will be 1900~2500 yuan for a long time, and the ex-factory price of dimethyl ether may run in the region of 3,000~3,800 yuan. The situation will continue for 2 to 3 years.