Abstract The Chinese journal "China Economist" of the Institute of Industrial Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences released the results of the "China Economist Hotspot Survey" in the fourth quarter of 2016 on December 23. The survey found that economists are optimistic about the overall economic situation...
The Chinese journal "China Economist" of the Institute of Industrial Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences released the results of the "China Economist Hotspot Survey" in the fourth quarter of 2016 on December 23. The survey found that economists' attitude toward the overall economic situation is further stable. More than 70% of economists believe that the economic growth rate for 2016 is 6.51%. 2016 is a year in which the economic environment is complex, coal and steel are de-capacity, and real estate is destocking. However, economists who judged that the annual economic growth rate can exceed 6.5% accounted for 72.18%, which is higher than the previous quarter's survey. 37.4 percentage points. Those who believe that the economic growth rate is below 6% are down by 6.08 percentage points from the previous survey. In terms of regions, the eastern and central economists judged that the annual economic growth rate was 6.5%, and the western economists judged that the economic growth rate was 6.53%. Through cross-group analysis, the survey calculated that economists judged China's 2016 annual economic growth rate as 6.51%.
For the upcoming fourth quarter of 2016, 49.6% of economists believe that the economic growth rate will increase or remain flat this year, 3.1 percentage points higher than the previous survey. 63.9% of economists believe that the price level in the fourth quarter will increase year-on-year, up 20.9 percentage points from the previous survey. In this issue, the price index of China's economics is 146, which is 24 points higher than the previous survey, indicating that the social price level in the fourth quarter is expected to rise strongly.
Under the situation that the world economy "black swan" is frequent, the Chinese economy faces many new challenges and new risks. Economists are not confident in the expected differentiation of the export situation. Economists who believe that exports rose or remained flat in the fourth quarter of 2016 accounted for 41.36%, down 12.1 percentage points from the previous survey. It is believed that exports fell by 47.4% year-on-year, up 7.4 percentage points from the previous survey. Another 11.3% of economists think it is difficult to judge. In this issue, the China Economist's foreign trade climate index is 68, which is lower than the previous survey, indicating that economists are not confident in the expected differentiation of the export situation.
Economic development and environmental governance have always been the focus of the game. The survey found that economists believe that the intensity of environmental regulation has increased in recent years, but the implementation process needs to be strengthened.
83% of economists also believe that China's current environmental regulation is insufficient and needs to be further strengthened. They believe that the implementation of environmental laws and regulations and China's development stage are the main reasons for the lack of environmental improvement.
Although China's environmental regulation is gradually strengthening, the public feels that the improvement of environmental conditions is not optimistic. Economists believe that the main reason for this phenomenon is that environmental laws and regulations are difficult to implement and China's current stage of development. As far as other factors are concerned, compared with the 2010 survey, the factors of unsound laws and regulations have been greatly reduced, indicating that the environmental laws and regulations have been greatly improved in the past five years, but the lack of social environmental awareness is still an important factor and improvement. not much.
In this survey, economists were selected from the China Economist economist database to conduct a questionnaire survey, and 133 valid feedbacks were received within one week. Statistics show that 69.17% of economists surveyed came from universities, 6.77% came from the Academy of Social Sciences; 10.53%, 6.77% and 3.01% from non-financial companies, financial institutions and government agencies; other interviews From government agencies, consulting companies and party school systems.
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