Adjusting Industrial Structure and Rebuilding China's Industrial Comparative Advantage

The research group of the industrial structure adjustment situation of the CCID Research Institute of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology “Core summary: Since 2015, the world economic recovery is still slow, and the downward pressure on China’s economy has increased. 2016 is the beginning of the “13th Five-Year Plan” and China’s industrial economy has entered It is estimated that the rapid development of high-tech manufacturing industry will drive China's industrial comparative advantage to reshape, the raw material industry continues to weaken and increase the pressure of overcapacity, and the "Internet +" strategy has become a new engine for structural optimization and upgrading. The implementation of regional cooperation and opening up strategy has accelerated the transfer of industries at home and abroad.
How to solve the problem of regional industrial growth two-level differentiation? How to deal with the decline in corporate profits under the economic slowdown? How to break through the huge resistance of regional industrial transfer? In the face of many problems in industrial restructuring, CCID thinks that it will accelerate the optimization and upgrading of traditional industries, actively cultivate new growth points, accelerate the implementation of major projects in manufacturing and strengthening countries, support enterprises to go global, expand international production capacity cooperation, reduce corporate burdens, and create good surroundings.
A 2016 situation: domestic and international industrial transfer accelerates the key driving force for high-tech manufacturing industry growth. At present, China's high-tech manufacturing industry maintains a high-speed growth trend from the value-added scale and export situation. With the implementation of the strategy of “Made in China 2025”, it is expected In 2016, high-tech manufacturing will continue to be a key driver of industrial economic growth, supporting China's industrial optimization and upgrading.
Rapid growth of high-tech manufacturing industry In the first three quarters of 2015, the added value of high-tech manufacturing increased by 10.4%, faster than the overall industrial growth rate of 4.2%, the contribution rate to industrial growth increased to 18.7%, and the high-tech manufacturing PMI continued for 10 consecutive years. The month is higher than the manufacturing PMI and continues the rapid development trend. Among them, from January to October, the cumulative value-added growth rate of chemical fiber, computer and other electronic equipment, medicine, railway and other transportation equipment, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industries reached 11.1%, 10.8%, 10.2%, 7.6%, respectively. 7.3%, respectively, higher than the growth rate of industrial added value of 5, 4.7, 4.1, 1.5, 1.2 percentage points.
With the acceleration of the construction of the Free Trade Zone and the promotion of the “Belt and Road” construction, the high-tech manufacturing industry represented by high-end equipment has increased in both investment and export. From January to October, high-tech manufacturing investment was 162.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.6%2. In the first three quarters, China's exports of large-scale complete sets of equipment increased by 10% year-on-year. Also. From the product aspect, we can see that in November, China's domestic large aircraft (C919 passenger aircraft) and the first railway large-diameter shield machine have been offline, breaking the long-term foreign technology monopoly. Under the development trend of high-tech manufacturing industry maintaining rapid growth in 2016, China's comparative advantage in participating in international competition began to reshape and became an important support for industrial economic growth.
Resolving overcapacity and deepening progress At present, due to the slowdown in economic growth and insufficient overall demand, China's steel, cement, electrolytic aluminum, flat glass and other raw materials industries still have serious overcapacity. China will continue its economic restructuring policy in 2016, which will further adversely affect the demand for raw materials industry. In the current situation that many traditional industries are still operating inefficiently, it has brought tremendous pressure on enterprises to transform and upgrade. Resolving overcapacity has become a key task for the development of traditional raw material industry.
In 2015, the steel industry was in a state of loss in the whole industry. In October, the steel industry PMI index was only 42.20%. In August, the domestic spot prices of copper, aluminum, lead and zinc decreased by 22.7%, 15.5%, 8.1% and 10.6%, respectively. The profit of non-ferrous industry reached 101.6 billion yuan, down 4.2% year-on-year, especially for state-owned and holding companies. Serious and still worse. In May 2015, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the Notice on the Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in Some Industries with Serious Overcapacity, to curb the blind expansion of industries with severe overcapacity, and to further promote the overcapacity work and achieved certain results. From January to October, the cumulative output of cement, flat glass, pig iron and crude steel decreased by 4.6, 8.3, 3.3, and 2.2 percentage points respectively. From the perspective of investment growth rate, the growth rate of fixed asset investment in some industries is also slowing down. The situation.
At present, although the backward production capacity defined by the existing process technology and equipment scale standards in key industries is very small, the backward production capacity that eliminates environmental protection, energy consumption, quality and safety is not up to standard is becoming more and more urgent, and the “13th Five-Year Plan” period is still deepening the elimination of backwardness. And work to resolve excess capacity.
"Internet +" into a new engine for structural optimization A new generation of information technology represented by mobile Internet, big data, cloud computing, etc. is developing rapidly and accelerating penetration into all areas of the economy and society.
In July 2015, the State Council issued the "Guiding Opinions on Actively Promoting the "Internet +" Action". The policy dividend will be further released in 2016. The integration of the Internet and the manufacturing industry will be further promoted, and new products, new formats and new models will be accelerated. It provided the impetus for the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure, and the new driving force for economic growth was also rapidly formed. From January to September 2015, the investment in fixed assets of the electronic information industry over 5 million yuan completed 992.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.1%, 4.6 percentage points higher than the same period of the previous year, and 7.1 percentage points higher than the industrial investment (8%) in the same period. The cumulative value-added growth rate of the computer, communications and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry reached 10.7%, which was 4.5 percentage points higher than the industrial added value growth rate during the same period. Software and information technology services industry completed software business revenue of 3,112.7 billion yuan, an increase of 16.5%, e-commerce platform services (including online trading platform services, online trading support services, including information technology support services) became a bright spot, revenue growth of 24.7%6 .
According to the “China Big Data Overall Market Trend Forecast Report 2014~2017” released by EnfoDesk, the growth rate of the big data application market in the past two years will be close to 30%. It is expected that the total size of the domestic big data market will break through in 2016. 10 billion yuan, mainly including Internet user data market, online financial market, and big data applications of IT enterprises and big data platform business market.
Accelerated industrial transfer at home and abroad In 2015, the three development strategies of “One Belt and One Road”, the construction of the Yangtze River Economic Belt and the integration of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei have been implemented steadily, which has become an important starting point for expanding the new development space of the regional government, and has already shown certain Results. It is expected that in 2016, the major space development strategy will accelerate and accelerate the pace of industrial transfer at home and abroad.
In terms of attracting foreign investment, from January to October, while investment from Japan, the United States and Taiwan fell by 25.1%, 13.6% and 19.3% respectively, investment from countries along the “Belt and Road” increased by 14%; in the Yangtze River Economic Zone, new 9859 foreign-invested enterprises were established, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%, accounting for 47% of the total number of newly established enterprises in the country.
In terms of foreign investment, from January to September, Chinese companies made direct investments in 48 countries along the “Belt and Road”, totaling US$12.03 billion, a year-on-year increase of 66.2%.
In response to the coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has formulated a catalogue of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei industrial transfer guidance. Hebei, Tianjin and other places have stepped up implementation and accurately undertaken industrial transfer. It is expected that substantial progress will be made this year and next. The implementation of the three major strategies not only promotes the upgrading of the parks that the industrial transfer undertakes, optimizes the local industrial structure, but also promotes the coordinated development of the central and western development zones, and expands the development space through regional synergies.
B. Core issues: old and new growth drivers, “green and yellow”, industrial restructuring is still facing greater pressure. The two-level differentiation of industrial growth highlights the overall situation. In 2015, the industrial economic growth of various provinces and cities in the country showed a slowdown, but the problem of two-level differentiation began to become prominent. .
From the perspective of industrial growth rate, from January to October, the regions with faster industrial value added growth in the eastern region were Tianjin, Fujian, Anhui, and Jiangsu, respectively, with growth rates of 9.3%, 8.8%, 8.6%, and 8.3%, respectively. The region's growth is slow, Liaoning Province shows a negative growth of 6%, Heilongjiang Province growth of 0.2%; industrial growth in most parts of the central and western regions is higher than the national average (except for a few provinces such as Shanxi and Hebei), and Chongqing has reached 10.8% of the industry. The growth rate of value added ranks second in the country (the first is Tibet).
        The difference in regional economic growth is mainly determined by the industrial structure. The industrial structure characterized by heavy industry in Northeast China is more prominent. Oil, coal, steel and so on are the main pillar industries. The growth of traditional industries is weak, and the development of emerging industries is insufficient. The main reason for economic growth. The region with a relatively reasonable industrial structure and a relatively advanced industrial development, direction, and structural adjustment has maintained sustained and healthy economic development.
In the first half of 2015, the investment in high-tech manufacturing in Guangdong Province increased by 46.8%, which was higher than the overall industrial level of the province. Zhejiang's strategic emerging industry investment accounted for 27.4% of industrial investment, up 10.3% year-on-year, higher than industrial and manufacturing investment growth, rapid growth of high-tech industry investment, and accumulated strength for industrial development.
The old and new dynamics of industrial economic growth are not in the green. In 2014, the added value of high-tech manufacturing industry accounted for only 10.6% of the industry. In the first half of 2015, it accounted for 11.4%. Although it has improved, the volume is still small.
According to the "2016 China Strategic Emerging Industry Development Report" issued by the Chinese Academy of Engineering, the strategic emerging industries in the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period accounted for about 8% of GDP. In the course of development, the existing management mechanism still cannot fully adapt to innovation. The development of products and services, the imperfect capital market, the difficulty of financing of emerging industrial enterprises, and the trend of international trade frictions to the emerging industries. On the one hand, high-tech manufacturing and strategic emerging industries are still small, and it is difficult to support the rapid growth of the industrial economy. On the other hand, the majority of traditional manufacturing industries are affected by factors such as insufficient demand and overcapacity. The speed has continued to fall, which has lowered the efficiency of the industry, and the industrial restructuring is still facing greater pressure.
The pressure on enterprises to reduce costs and increase efficiency has increased the production costs of industrial enterprises. From January to September 2015, the cost per 100 yuan of main business income of industrial enterprises above designated size was 86.1 yuan, the highest level since the 12th Five-Year Plan. It is 1.5 yuan higher than 2010. The loss of corporate losses remained high. From January to September, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size fell by 1.7% year-on-year, and there was a tendency for the decline to widen. As of September, industrial loss-making enterprises increased by 15% over the same period of the previous year, and loss-making state-owned industrial enterprises accounted for more than one-third of the total. The PMI of small and medium-sized enterprises has been below the critical point for several consecutive months. Financing difficulties and high financing are still one of the major problems that plague the production and operation of small enterprises. The general profit margin of national enterprises has shrunk, and there are many “zombie enterprises” that have long been unprofitable, which has greatly reduced economic efficiency.
Regional industrial transfer faces great resistance Under the background of “Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei integration” and “Yangtze River Economic Belt Construction” and many other national strategies, the pace of regional industrial transfer in China is gradually accelerating. However, as the downward pressure on the economy has increased and labor costs continue to rise, many companies have adopted measures such as layoffs and wage reductions to maintain profit margins and market competitiveness. The attractiveness of talents in the central and western regions has gradually declined, and the labor market has narrowed and suppressed. The driving force for the transfer of some industries to the central and western regions.
On the other hand, the foundation of supporting the industry in the central and western regions needs to be further improved, and the public service capacity needs to be further improved. In the implementation of policies to promote industrial transfer, more ways to build parks and platforms have been adopted. The regional characteristics and differentiated development strategies are not clear, which has slowed the pace of industrial transfer between regions.
C Countermeasures Suggestions to foster new growth points to promote the development of traditional industries to the high-end of the value chain. Accelerate the upgrading of traditional industries. Traditional industries are still the main force of China's industrial development. At present, China's high-tech manufacturing industry is growing rapidly, but in terms of volume, the proportion is not By 15%, the traditional industry is still the focus of the 13th Five-Year Plan for steady growth, restructuring, and transfer. It is recommended to launch a new round of major projects for technological transformation of enterprises, promote the deep integration of next-generation information technology, Internet technology and manufacturing, optimize product structure, comprehensively improve the design, manufacturing, process and management level, and promote the transformation of steel, petrochemical and other industries into the value chain. High-end development. At the same time, increase the efforts to eliminate zombie enterprises, establish a market exit mechanism, and improve the legal guarantee for bankruptcy and withdrawal.
Actively foster new growth points To implement the "Internet +" action plan and the national big data strategy as an important opportunity to deepen the application of the Internet in the manufacturing sector and foster new economic growth points. Actively explore and develop new models such as Internet-based personalized customization, crowdsourcing design, cloud manufacturing, collaborative manufacturing, and industrial big data, accelerate the pilot demonstration, and build an open and shared industrial ecosystem. Encourage the development of service-oriented manufacturing and production service industries, and promote manufacturing enterprises to provide high-value-added application services such as Internet-based intelligent monitoring, remote services, and full industrial chain traceability. Promote the construction of networked manufacturing platforms, and form a network collaborative manufacturing service system across systems, industries, regions, enterprises and consumers.
Accelerate the implementation of the major tasks of manufacturing major countries around the "Made in China 2025" clear tasks and measures, accelerate the launch of high-end equipment innovation, intelligent manufacturing, industrial strong base, green manufacturing, national manufacturing innovation center construction and other major projects, as well as quality brand improvement, To develop a service-oriented manufacturing action plan, aiming at the urgent requirements for the current industrial transformation and upgrading, we will launch and implement a number of major projects with high market potential, high degree of relevance, strong driving ability and good industrial base. Through project implementation, we will boost demand, transform traditional industries, promote key areas, and improve industrial competitiveness.
Expanding international capacity cooperation China's manufacturing sector has formed a complete industrial system and has a strong foundation for international cooperation. The first is to strengthen overall coordination. According to the overall planning of the country, formulate international capacity cooperation plans, adjust and optimize the structure of export products, gradually reduce the export of “two high and one capital” products, and promote the key industries to go global. Second, relying on the “One Belt, One Road” strategy, we will actively promote the interconnection and interconnection of infrastructure with neighboring countries, explore modes such as the construction of cooperative zones such as economic and trade cooperation zones, industrial parks, and special economic zones, and strengthen cooperation and docking in industries. The third is the way of innovation and cooperation. Actively carry out "project contracting + financing", "project contracting + financing + operations" and other cooperation, conditional projects can use BOT, PPP and other means. According to the actual situation of each country, we will carry out international capacity cooperation through technical cooperation and technical assistance. The fourth is to establish bilateral or multilateral exchange mechanisms, establish an export warning mechanism, reduce trade frictions, and reduce export risks.
Reduce the burden on enterprises, increase efforts to reduce the burden of corporate taxes and fees, clean up institutional barriers that hinder social capital from entering competitive markets, promote the reform of state-owned enterprises, improve the mechanism for the withdrawal of excess capacity and the mechanism of state-owned capital, and reduce administrative interventions for mergers and acquisitions. Under the environmental protection threshold and fair financing tax standards, the entry restrictions of the surplus industries will be liberalized, social capital will be involved in competition and capacity restructuring, and the overall operation level of the industry will be improved.