Abstract 2012 is a difficult year for China's hardware and electromechanical industry. The country's macro-control of the real estate industry has cooled down the hot real estate industry, which has brought a lot of impact to the hardware and electromechanical industry closely related to real estate. Since the beginning of the year, apart from the market...
2012 is a difficult year for China's hardware and electromechanical industry. The country's macro-control of the real estate industry has cooled down the hot real estate industry, which has brought a big impact on the hardware and electromechanical industry closely related to real estate. Since the beginning of the year, apart from the fact that some large merchants have fixed transaction volume, most of the remaining small and medium-sized merchants have reported a decline in both volume and price. I. Analysis of the overall price of the 2012 hardware and electrical machinery market
From May to December 2012, the price of hardware and electrical industry experienced a trend of rising first and then falling, and picking up at the end of the year. From May to June 2012, the price has been slightly reduced, mainly due to the impact of the May 1st holiday, and gradually warmed up in July, and the trend has been maintained until August. Compared with previous years, the “Golden September and Silver 10†in 2012 is even more depressed. The “cold winter†caused by the “restriction order†has had a great impact on the entire hardware and electrical market. The large number of houses sold out have not been renovated. It is relatively difficult to shoot, and house prices have been falling so that many homeowners will not resell. Under this circumstance, consumers who have previously invested in housing purchases can only choose to rent after renovation. . As a result, the hardware home building materials market has actually increased a lot of potential consumers. For the merchants, you can't let go of any business opportunities that can make money. In order to attract these potential consumers, in the case of relatively abundant supply, in September and October of 2012, all kinds of merchants can be seen everywhere. Promotions, the escalation of price wars, led to lower prices for several months. The lowest price in the year appeared in November, also in November, the price turned inflection point.
Second, the analysis of the overall economic situation of the 2012 hardware and electrical machinery market
In general, it seems that the situation of hardware and electromechanical market in 2012 has risen steadily. From May to June 2012, the end of the “May 1st†holiday, the market ushered in a number of procurement peaks, including 12 in the hardware and electrical machinery. In the large category, commonly used hardware parts and products, construction hardware products, especially bathroom hardware products, wire and cable products, instrumentation products, mechanical and electrical equipment products, from the scale index of these major categories, this The sales volume of several types of products is very large, far exceeding the expectations of merchants. It can be said that it is a small bumper harvest in 2012.
From the National Bureau of Statistics' Macro Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index PMI, make a simple comparison. Before May 2012, driven by the warming of the weather and the concentration of work after the Spring Festival, the manufacturing PMI basically showed an upward trend. After rising to a high of 53.3% in April, the manufacturing PMI from May to July was 3 consecutive. The month showed a downward trend, and the initial stage signal was initially observed. From the perspective of market sentiment index monitoring, the situation was basically in line. In August and September, the manufacturing PMI was 50% lower than the critical point for two consecutive months. The hardware and electrical market prosperity index in August also began to decline. It continued until October, and the market situation improved. Since October, the effect of the state's macro-control policies has begun to appear, and the overall market situation has rebounded, but the recovery has not been large.
In November and December, the prosperity index was mainly affected by two aspects. On the one hand, it was a large-scale promotion at the end of the market, and before the enterprises purchased the goods in advance in 2013, the transaction volume increased, leading to the scale index. On the other hand, according to the sales situation of the year and an expectation of the macroeconomic trend, most merchants are confident in the hardware and electrical industry in 2013, and believe that the prosperity will rise in the coming year, which makes the confidence index also rise. Due to the impact of these two aspects, the prosperity index rose sharply by the end of the year.
3. Forecast of hardware and electrical machinery market in 2013
In 2012, China's hardware and electromechanical industry gradually got rid of the impact of the financial crisis. With the gradual recovery of the domestic and foreign markets, China's hardware and electrical machinery companies are also looking to the larger foreign markets while maintaining the European and American international markets. From the perspective of different hardware tools:
The market demand for individual hand tools in the hardware tools category has stabilized, especially the annual increase in the size of new houses in the housing market. However, due to the state's macro-control, the housing is still vacant, and the demand for hardware tools is an influential factor in the renovation and maintenance of houses; Secondly, the prosperity of the motor vehicle market, with the increase in the age of motor vehicles, has played a certain role in promoting the hardware tools of the automotive aftermarket. At present, the increasing popularity of various new power tools also indicates the arrival of a new era of hardware tools.
Most of the hardware parts are mainly made of large-scale machinery parts, such as large-scale machine tools and large-scale hydraulic equipment. In 2012, China's traditional large-scale equipment manufacturing industry changed from the original price war to the competition between brands. The wrestling between the two, which also raised the requirements for the level of related hardware components, from the market can be seen, the demand for high-end products has not shrunk, the market demand structure is also climbing to the high end.
Among the construction hardware and hardware materials, the demand for bathroom hardware, locks and home-related hardware products decreased at the end of 2012, and the sales volume remained stable. At present, the mainstream consumer groups of home hardware products are 80, 90 after these young groups, for products. The positioning trend has also changed rapidly. The products of environmental protection, fashion, quality and individuality are in line with the values ​​of the current young consumer groups. Many merchants in the market have also made adjustments to the product structure. In addition, the price of pipes and various hardware raw materials fluctuates greatly. In the early period of the Spring Festival holiday, with the successive closure of downstream manufacturers and merchants, the hardware raw materials market is basically in a state of pricelessness and market, and there is a gap in market demand, which will promote the raw material market in the coming year, but there are still certain risk factors. The key factors to be concerned are: whether the release of demand is smooth, and what new adjustments are made to the various elements at the macro level. These need to be taken one step further.
Welding machines, welding tools and Welding Consumables, electrical and electrical, wire and cable products are mostly based on volume. Compared with electrical and electronic wire and cable products, the consumption of welding consumables is even larger. From the scale index at the end of 2012, it can be seen that the sales of welders, welding tools and welding consumables are significantly higher than those of electrical, electrical and wire and cable products. It is expected that sales of such products will remain stable in 2013. In addition, electrical and electrical, wire and cable products are closely related to the degree of prosperity of the municipal construction and real estate market. In 2013, we also need to pay attention to the trends and trends of relevant markets, and seize the opportunity to adjust the production and sales strategies of products.
Among the lighting appliances, instrumentation and security equipment and supplies, some hand protection products, fire protection equipment products, and traffic safety protection products are affected by seasonal factors, and also have a great relationship with the promotion policies adopted by merchants. For scientific research and testing units, there are many seasonal replacement products. The time of school and holiday time in scientific research institutions will also affect the procurement of experimental equipment.
Mechanical and electrical equipment and mechanical equipment, overall, in 2012, mechanical products, demand growth has slowed down sharply, prices have fallen, overcapacity, except for the technology has not yet passed, and so far there is still a few high-end equipment that can achieve localization, almost all Mechanical products are facing severe oversupply and vicious competition, rising costs, and the industry's living environment is getting worse. However, we can also see that China's machinery and equipment manufacturing industry is growing fast, and is in a stage of thriving growth, and merchants are also optimistic about the market situation in 2013, and believe that the industry's development prospects are bright.
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