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On July 27th, the third session of the Shenzhen International Home Furnishings opened, "What will change the future of the Chinese furniture industry?" Hosted by the Shenzhen Furniture Industry Association and Shenzhen Furniture Research and Development Institute ---- 2013 China Furniture Industry Model Innovation and Road Innovation Forum "was grandly held in the Bougainvillea Hall on the 5th floor of the Shenzhen Convention and Exhibition Center. Hou Kepeng, executive chairman of Shenzhen Furniture Industry Association, gave a keynote speech on the future pattern and strategic direction of China's furniture industry.
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China furniture industry status
From the perspective of manufacturing, the five major manufacturing regions formed in the past three decades of reform and opening up, including the Pearl River Delta, the Yangtze River Delta, the Bohai Rim plus Shandong and Hebei, the Northeast, and Sichuan, the overall pattern has not changed. But the structure has undergone profound changes. In the past, the upholstered furniture and panel furniture in Guangdong area that we are proud of are going downhill gradually, and replaced by panel furniture from Sichuan. But there is a category where custom-made panel furniture is flourishing. Soft furniture was originally the core of Shenzhen manufacturing, but now there are only a few. How many Guangdong software brands are left in the market? Instead, most small and medium-sized enterprises began to transform and began to make solid wood furniture, which is still called "high-end solid wood furniture", but they are facing strong resistance from Shandong and Tianjin, so Guangdong furniture and panel furniture do not have the advantage. , Upholstered furniture has lost a certain position. Solid wood furniture is facing strong pressure from other regions. The manufacturing industry used to be a dominant company in the Pearl River Delta, and now it has formed a three-legged trend. This "three-legged" is Guangdong, Bohai Rim, Hebei and Shandong, Sichuan, and East China Not counting, after all, East China is not a large quantity, after all, export-oriented. There is basically no decent brand in Northeast China, so the three-legged trend has basically taken shape.
Take another look at the retail industry, look at the stores, the overall trend of the furniture retail industry with hypermarkets as the core has not changed, but there is a huge survival crisis hidden in it. The next difficult step is neither the manufacturer nor the factory, but the store. In the first-tier and second-tier stores, the stores can still survive, and the newly added stores have limited survival space. It is conceivable to look at the stores that have closed down in first-, second-, and third-tier cities in the last six months. The newly opened special session is difficult to attract investment. If it used to be business investment in the past, it can be said to be business investment now. This is the huge pressure faced by hypermarkets.
Look at the dealers again. Since there are furniture exhibitions in Guangdong and Shanghai and various places across the country at the professional level , of course, including the Shenzhen exhibition, there is a hypermarket in the terminal to provide display space, or space for contact with consumers. In the past two decades, dealers have basically enjoyed their success. This kind of platform for success has not caused these dealers to grow or grow rapidly, but gradually tends to shrink. There are no more than one billion dealers nationwide. It can be said that there is no nationwide chain influence ability, and there are not many province-wide influence capacities. Most or 70% are also husband and wife shops or self-employed. The self-employed will basically disappear within five years.
Looking at consumers again, the industry has not changed, but the consumption structure has undergone a fundamental change. The consumption structure has tended to be polarized, facing the post-80s and post-90s. Polarization means high and low. The quality of consumption consciousness, whether it is high, medium, or low, consumers have not slackened in the pursuit of furniture quality. Whether it is bought online, in a physical store or in an experience store, it requires quality. The experience of consumption process, the dealer's factory is very concerned about the consumption experience.
The network of consumer behavior and the network of sales behavior have formed a big trend. In the future, couples will basically buy fewer and fewer furniture. This is the status quo of the Chinese furniture industry.
Challenges facing the Chinese furniture industry
The biggest challenge is the macroeconomic environment in the past two years. Some small enterprises in Shenzhen have been unable to support it. This industry will have an integration in the past two years, the larger one may be larger, and the small one will gradually withdraw from this field. This is a realistic problem. Within five years, the country has begun to suspend the construction of all buildings and halls, and also reduced taxes for small and micro enterprises, because the state's tax revenue has been growing negatively in the past six months, but the state's expenditure has not decreased. In the future, a large part of manufacturers in the public sector will be converted to civilian manufacturers. This part now basically accounts for 20% of the furniture industry. The next five years will be visible from next year, and all buildings will be closed. Jian, who does this part of the furniture manufacturer sell office furniture to? There is no way out without switching to civilian channels. Therefore, the surplus production capacity of this industry will be adjusted due to the continuing downturn in the macroeconomic environment.
Shenzhen announced on July 17 that 61 furniture companies have implemented cleaner production supervision since August this year. What cleaner production does the furniture industry have? In the first half of this year, Shenzhen has eliminated 1,300 enterprises with backward production capacity. If these 61 key regulated emission companies fail to meet the standards, the government will clean them up. In May and June, Shenzhen will feel the blue sky and white clouds. The nitrogen and oxygen compounds in the air have been significantly reduced, due to the closure of many backward manufacturing companies. Shenzhen announced that Shenzhen's air quality ranked first in major cities, second only to Lhasa and Dali.
The second point is the challenge of the retail model. They all say that dealers in Shenzhen are not reliable, but who are you looking for after losing these dealers? The key is what model we can use to change the existing model that relies on hypermarkets. If this model does not change, it means that the opportunity for development is lost. In the future, in the retail industry, we will not eliminate each other. It must be that we will be eliminated after the 1980s. This industry is basically challenged.
The third challenge is the challenge of the traditional thinking of the furniture manufacturing industry. The informationization of the furniture manufacturing industry is seriously lagging behind. There are only a handful of companies that can truly use informationization throughout the process. Some of them still stay in the semi-informatized original industrial production state, which is contrary to the new industrialization advocated by the state. Many bosses now do software and system companies recommend to the manufacturing industry, but they are rejected. It is a challenge of ideology. This industry only believes that God does not believe in people. Whoever does a good job is God, otherwise he will not believe at all. The furniture industry should wake up and accept these new things.
The fourth challenge is that the challenge of knowledge stocks is not growing fast enough. The reason why this industry is in this state is that the structure of talents is wrong, and the people of first- and second-tier institutions are basically not in this industry. People must have ideas, find ways to broaden their minds, and introduce more high-end talents in order to inspire continuous change in this industry. Otherwise, without the accumulation of knowledge and technology, it is not easy for this industry to go far.
The fifth challenge is that the comprehensive ability of this industry is insufficient. This ability is not just an operational ability. It is not just terminal shopping guides. 10% of the shopping guides can talk, 90% of them talk nonsense. It also includes the ability to plan for the future. Many people in this industry only see what they are seeing, and basically do n’t think about it for the next ten or twenty years. Recently, many Guangdong companies have purchased many factories that have closed down Taiwanese companies around Shenzhen. Is this a problem of inventory or an increase? If you solve the problem of inventory and no one drives you away, you can stick to it. If you solve the problem of increment, can you solve the problem of a production workshop if you buy a factory in the surrounding area? Can you solve the problem of a nationwide layout that provides fast delivery, fast installation for dealers, consumers, or convenient services for dealers? So, many factory owners have so far taken the same old road that Taiwanese and Hong Kong people took 20 years ago.
Opportunities facing the Chinese furniture industry
First, urbanization can bring us huge consumer demand in the market. The urbanization rate of the Central Plains in the six central provinces is only 45% lower than the national average. In the six provinces of Yujin, E, Anhui, Hunan, and Jiangxi, on the contrary, the urbanization rate in East China has exceeded 65%. Shenzhen Dongguan can be said to be 100% urban Rural area. According to international practice, an urbanization rate of more than 65% means that consumer demand is stabilizing. The six central provinces account for 45%. If according to the national plan for 2030, urbanization should reach 75%, and there is still room for 30% in the six central provinces. . This is why the six provinces in the central region feel better than other cities, and the third and fourth tier cities are better than the first and second tier cities under such difficult conditions in the past two years.
The second opportunity is that the per capita income or GDP per capita is increasing year by year. Now China ’s average GDP income is nearly 5,000 US dollars. It is said that it will exceed 8,000 by the end of this year and early next year, and the per capita GDP will exceed 8,000 US dollars. It is said how fast the income level is, but due to the rapid appreciation of the renminbi and the rapid depreciation of the US dollar, the per capita GDP level will increase substantially. According to international common practice, when the per capita GDP exceeds 8,000, there is an essential difference from 5,000. Below 5,000, people only pursue material or functional enjoyment, but more than 8,000 At that time, people will pursue the enjoyment of spiritual life more, and he is more concerned about the quality of life and life experience. This is an important reason why our furniture accessories can flourish so fast in recent years. In the past, there were problems with food and clothing, but just to solve the problem of buying furniture is to solve the function of use. In the future, to create a beautiful life field, it needs to be beautiful and fun. (Editor: Peter)
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