ExxonMobil Chemical recently released the latest version of the 2030 Energy Outlook Report. The report stated that by 2030, the world energy structure will undergo a major change. The share of natural gas in global energy will increase from approximately 20% to approximately 25%, which will surpass coal to become the second largest energy source in the world; the proportion of new energy such as wind, solar energy and biofuels in global energy will reach approximately 3%; global liquid Fuel production will increase, mainly from non-OPEC countries producing crude oil and natural gas condensate (NGLs), Canadian oil sands and biofuels; unconventional natural gas such as shale gas and coalbed methane will grow five times.
Two major changes in energy structure
The report pointed out that by 2030, oil will still be the world's most important energy source, and the proportion of natural gas in the world's energy will increase from about 20% to about 25%. One reason why the proportion of natural gas increases is that the demand for power generation and industry has risen sharply, especially in non-economic cooperation and development organizations (abbreviated as non-OECD) countries; another reason is that many countries will reduce their carbon dioxide emissions. Use coal, especially in the countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). The growth of this clean fuel depends on the exploitation of large quantities of new natural gas, including shale gas, tight gas and coalbed methane.
Another major change is that wind, solar and biofuels will grow significantly. According to the global energy demand for fuel, the major energy sources are oil, natural gas, coal, biomass, nuclear energy, hydropower/geothermal and wind/solar energy/biofuels. In 2005, the three types of fuels, wind energy, solar energy, and biofuels, were less than 0.5% of the total energy demand. However, by 2030, their share in global energy will reach about 3%, with an average annual growth rate of 9.9%. Correspondingly, coal's market share will decline, especially in OECD countries. However, this abundant and reasonably priced fuel will continue to play an important role.
Liquid fuel production will increase significantly
The report analyzes that in order to meet the growth in demand in the global transportation sector, liquid fuel production will increase. From 2005 to 2030, global demand for crude oil and other liquid fuels will increase by more than 20%. Among them, Canadian oil sands and biofuels have grown significantly. In addition, NGLs will also play an increasingly important role in meeting global liquid fuel demand. By 2030, global NGLs production is expected to reach approximately 11 million barrels per day, which is higher than the current crude oil production in Saudi Arabia. By 2030, NGLs will meet more than 10% of the global demand for liquid fuels.
By 2030, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC countries will each meet almost half of the growth in demand for liquid fuels. At present, the largest source of liquid fuel in the world is crude oil and condensate produced by non-OPEC countries. In 2030, their production is expected to be basically stable, because certain areas of growth, such as deep water and oil sands, will offset the decline in conventional oil field production. Therefore, in order to meet the growth of liquid fuel demand, OPEC needs to increase production, and it needs to be supplemented with biofuels and other oil sources, such as NGLs, coal-to-oil, and gas-to-oil.
ExxonMobil expects global liquid fuel production by 2030, excluding OPEC crude, to increase to approximately 67 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. By 2030, the difference between these supplies and projected global demand is expected to increase to approximately 36 million barrels of oil equivalent per day.
Unconventional gas will grow 5 times
By 2030, natural gas will be the fastest growing main fuel, and natural gas demand in non-OECD countries will grow fastest. From 2005 to 2030, demand growth will exceed 130 billion cubic feet per day. Natural gas demand in OECD countries has grown by nearly 50 billion cubic feet per day.
The world’s fastest growing natural gas supply is unconventional gas such as shale gas and coal bed methane. From 2005 to 2030, unconventional natural gas production is expected to increase by five times. Unconventional natural gas production in the United States is growing fastest. By 2030, its output will meet more than half of the United States' natural gas demand. The demand for increased natural gas comes from the field of power generation, but there are other factors in other areas. In India, for example, demand comes from the industrial sector, natural gas provides energy for the manufacture of steel and other necessities; China’s demand is driven by residential/commercial and industrial sectors; and in the Middle East, the demand for power generation and industry grows rapidly, especially in the chemical industry. .
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