The European debt crisis once again accelerated the expansion of PV companies after the recovery in 2010. Will the adjustment of the European subsidy policy and the successive destruction of foreign companies push the PV companies into the cold winter brought by the 2008 financial crisis? In the eyes of many industry insiders, the adjustment of European PV policy has ended, and the price of polysilicon has begun to fall. Photovoltaic will usher in an inflection point in the second half of the year. The worst time is "It's hard to be awkward." A small and medium-sized photovoltaic cell manufacturer in Jiangsu told the reporter of China Business News that the company's components and batteries have suffered large-scale destruction. Many products have been shipped to Europe. Also stacked on the docks and warehouses. He told reporters that the situation of such foreign-invested orders is mainly concentrated in Italy, Spain and other countries. One is that the buyer's capital chain is broken, and the contract is not allowed to be executed. The other is that the buyer is down and the price is only contract. The price is 2/3 or less. If the seller does not sell, the goods can only be accumulated in the port. According to the reporter's understanding, the impact of the photovoltaic industry has gradually spread from small and medium-sized enterprises to large enterprises. Some large enterprises have sold their prices at a reduced price, and profits have fallen sharply. Data show that since the beginning of the year, polysilicon prices have fallen by 30%, and downstream PV modules and batteries have fallen by 20%. Gu Huamin, president of Central Engineering, told reporters that PV has suddenly suffered a trough this year and is related to changes in market policies in Germany and Italy. In the past few months, subsidies in Europe have declined, and installers in various countries have been uncertain, directly affecting China's PV companies. Export. In addition to the policy winter, the rapid expansion of domestic enterprises is also difficult to blame. In the past year, Yingli Green Energy's production capacity has doubled to over 1GW; Wuxi Suntech's production capacity has increased 2.5 times, from 700MW to 1800MW, in addition to Changzhou Tianhe, Suzhou Artes and other companies. Production capacity has also doubled, while the global PV market has not doubled. Foreign investors’ orders, European policy adjustments, and rapid expansion have finally become the last straws, allowing photovoltaics to enter the winter season. How long will the transition or the coming winter stay? Insiders began to explore this topic. "In the second half of the year, the global market will definitely turn to the economy." A person from the Jiangxi Saiwei Marketing Department told reporters. He said that the photovoltaic industry has entered a period of volatility, and the current European policy adjustment has ended. With all kinds of negatives, PV installations in European countries have now entered a recovery period. The source pointed out that the “12th Five-Year Renewable Energy Development Planâ€, which has been reported to the State Council, disclosed that China’s PV installed capacity was 10GW in 2015, and by 2020, this figure will be 20GW, which is already higher than the original. The capacity has more than doubled. "China's current PV installed capacity is less than 500MW. It is foreseeable that the start of the domestic market will also drive the global PV industry out of the winter." In fact, in July, the market began to show signs of recovery. According to relevant data, the price of polysilicon on the market in early July was US$54/kg, which was an increase of US$2/kg compared with June. This is the first increase since the price of polysilicon continued to fall in the first half of the year. And European policy may also change. Siro, a senior analyst at OFweek Solar PV Network, believes that due to the crisis of the Fukushima nuclear power plant in Japan, Germany has shut down national nuclear power plants for several months, and in the future new energy sources, photovoltaic power generation is the most likely alternative to nuclear power. At present, if the total amount of nuclear power generation in Germany can be replaced by photovoltaic power generation, a total of 175 GW of installed capacity is required, which means that the average installed capacity per year in the next ten years is 17.5 GW. "It can be said that the boots have landed," Siro told reporters. But different voices also exist. Li Shengmao, a senior researcher at China Investment Consulting, said that although the price of polysilicon has rebounded and the inventory of PV modules has declined, it is too early to conclude that the PV industry will bottom out. "The global photovoltaic industry has always had obvious peak seasons. The second half of the year has been the traditional peak season for installation. There is no data showing that the installation volume will increase sharply in the second half of this year, so the industry cannot be blindly optimistic." Note: 1GW =1000MW
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