The photovoltaic equipment sector is seeing a visible investment layout opportunity. In 2019, the photovoltaic industry ushered in a more favorable policy environment, and the sustainable development of the industry after subsidization gradually formed a trend. The new technology iteration brings about the coming of structural investment in the industry. The PV pool equipment suppliers with core competitiveness and outstanding equipment R&D are expected to stand out and form a continuous rising market.
Heavy catalysis
On January 9th, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Notice on Actively Promoting Non-subsidized Internet Access for Wind Power and Photovoltaic Power Generation", clearly establishing the construction of affordable Internet projects and low-cost Internet pilot projects, optimizing the investment environment for affordable Internet projects and low-cost Internet projects. Promote the development of wind power and photovoltaic power generation through power market transactions without subsidies.
GF Securities believes that the "Notice" indicates that the country will promote the trend and determination of photovoltaic and wind level prices as soon as possible. After the subsidy is completely abolished, the wind power and photovoltaic industries can develop healthily and orderly. In recent years, with the expansion of domestic wind power, photovoltaic power generation and rapid technological advancement, some regions have basically met the conditions for the parity of coal-fired power grids. Considering that the current national subsidy gap in the new energy industry is large, the policy gives local support policies decentralization, and local governments rely on their own conditions to carry out construction, which will also effectively promote investment activity across the country. As the follow-up industry policies continue to be introduced, the industry's long-term development logic will continue to be rationalized.
Entering a period of rapid growth
In 2019, the photovoltaic industry entered the boom cycle after the adjustment period. According to the data released by BP, the global PV installed capacity growth rate reached 28% in 2017, and China's installed capacity growth rate reached 54%. The expansion of the industry scale drove the demand for battery equipment.
According to the agency's estimates, China's photovoltaic wind power in 2019 totaled about 56GW increments, and even more. In 14 provinces and cities, the total installed capacity of power supply in 2017 was 71GW, and the total installed capacity of photovoltaic wind power was 47GW, accounting for 67%; the total installed capacity of power supply from January to November 2018 was 60GW, and the total installed capacity of photovoltaic wind power was 35GW. More than 59%. Assuming a total installed capacity of 70GW for the whole year, the installed capacity of photovoltaic wind power is increased from 60% to 100%. It is estimated that 28GW of traditional energy installed capacity can be replaced by photovoltaic wind power every year. If the equivalent hours of wind and solar energy utilization is half of traditional energy, the corresponding photovoltaic The incremental demand for wind power is about 56 GW.
Guojin Securities also believes that the photovoltaic industry has experienced the final round of economic adjustment before the large-scale realization of parity online in 2018. Within two years, it will usher in a new round of rapid growth after the realization of the generation side parity in the world. The company still has several times of room for growth. In 2019, the overall probability of the industry's prosperity is better than that of 2018, and the photovoltaic sector is one of the few sectors on the market that is largely unaffected by the domestic macro economy and has a relatively low PE valuation.
In the manufacturing industry chain, Yao Yao, an analyst at Guojin Securities, stressed that in the future, the overall concentration will increase and the efficiency of the process will be accelerated. The dominant companies in the advantage chain will gain excess profit margins, with a focus on low-cost silicon materials, high-efficiency batteries, and single Crystal silicon wafers, photovoltaic glass, and focus on the localization of battery equipment.
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