It is estimated that in the next 10 years, the world will need 12,000 trunk aircraft, 22,700 regional aircraft, 18,300 general-purpose aircraft and 12,000 helicopters, with a total value of about 2 trillion US dollars. The only domestic and regional passenger aircraft are equipped. Equipment and system output value scale...
It is estimated that in the next 10 years, the world will need 12,000 mainline aircraft, 0.27 regional aircraft, 18,300 general-purpose aircraft and 12,000 helicopters, with a total value of about 2 trillion US dollars. The airborne airborne support for domestic and regional passenger aircraft only The output value of equipment and systems will reach 800 billion yuan; the cumulative demand for domestic large-scale turbofan engines for large turbofan engines exceeds 6,000, with a total value of over US$50 billion. It is estimated that the output value of China's satellite applications will reach 500 billion yuan in 2020 and nearly 1 trillion yuan in 2025. The huge market demand puts higher demands on the development of aerospace equipment and brings huge business opportunities. Recently released the "Technical Roadmap for Key Areas (2015 Edition)" proposes to focus on the major economic and social development and national security needs, select 10 strategic industries to achieve key breakthroughs, and strive to be in the international leading position or international advanced level by 2025. Among them, aerospace equipment includes four directions, namely aircraft, aero engines, aircraft airborne equipment and systems, and aerospace equipment. Around the four directions, the roadmap identifies phased development goals, key products, and application demonstration key projects.
Civil aircraft industry revenue exceeds 200 billion yuan
The growing demand for air transport and general aviation services has created a broad market space for the development of the aircraft industry. The road map indicates that in the aircraft field, the next step will focus on the development of trunk aircraft, regional aircraft, general aircraft, helicopters, drones and other related products.
It is estimated that in the next 10 years, the world will need 12,000 trunk aircraft, 0.27 regional aircraft, 18,300 general-purpose aircraft and 12,000 helicopters, with a total value of about 2 trillion US dollars. At the same time, with China's airspace management reform and low-altitude airspace With the open advancement, the domestic general aircraft, helicopter and drone market is huge.
According to the target set by the road map, in 2020, the annual operating income of the civil aircraft industry exceeds 100 billion yuan; the 150-seat single-channel trunk aircraft completes the development, production and delivery; the trunk aircraft delivers more than 5% of the domestic market share, and the turboprop line Aircraft deliveries account for 5% to 10% of the global market; general aircraft and helicopter deliveries account for 20% and 10% of the global market respectively.
By 2025, the civil aircraft industry will have an annual operating income of more than 200 billion yuan; the development, production and delivery of the 280-seat dual-channel trunk aircraft; the delivery of trunk aircraft accounts for more than 10% of the domestic market, and the delivery of turboprop regional aircraft accounts for the global market. The share is 10% to 20%, and the global aircraft and helicopter deliveries account for 40% and 15% of the global market respectively.
In key common technologies, the key points are: comprehensive design and verification technology for green aircraft; typical main structure design, manufacturing and verification technology for aircraft composites; large-scale lightweight overall and high-strength metal structure manufacturing technology; high comfort helicopter dynamics design and verification Technology; health monitoring, intelligent maintenance systems and customer product support integrated integrated application technology.
In the application demonstration, the key advances are: network-based design/manufacturing/service integration demonstration project, aircraft intelligent manufacturing demonstration project, high-efficiency and low-cost manufacturing demonstration project for composite materials, civil aircraft technology integrated flight verification application demonstration project, civil aircraft Demonstrate five major projects such as operation engineering.
In terms of strategic support and guarantee, the road map is clear, it is necessary to strengthen the standardization of civil aircraft standards and airworthiness construction; formulate a general aviation development program, establish industry associations, general aviation manufacturing associations, guide the rapid and healthy development of the general aviation industry; support domestic Construction of civil aircraft marketing and service guarantee system; encourage the development of domestic key special process equipment to improve support capabilities.
Aviation engines enter the world's first echelon
The aero-engine industry refers to an integrated industrial cluster that integrates R&D, production, and maintenance support services for turbofan/ turbojet engines, turboshaft/turbo engine and transmission systems, and aviation piston engines.
The aero engine industry has a long industrial chain and a wide coverage, which has a huge driving effect on the national economy and technological development. From the market demand, the total demand for global turbofan/ turbojet engines will exceed 73,600 units in the next 10 years, with a total value of over US$416 billion; the total demand for turboshaft engines will exceed 34,000 units, with a total value of over US$19 billion. The total demand for turboprop engines exceeds 16,000 units, with a total value of over US$15 billion. The total demand for piston engines exceeds 33,000 units, accounting for more than 60% of the Tongfei power market, with a total value of approximately US$3 billion. At the same time, the cumulative demand for domestic turbojet engines for large turbofan engines exceeds 6,000, with a total value of over US$50 billion. The opening of low-altitude airspace will further stimulate the demand for engines such as turboshafts and pistons.
The development goal proposed by the roadmap is: by 2020, the CJ-1000A will complete the model development; 1000kgf class turbofan, 1000kW class turboshaft, etc. to complete the demonstration and model development; aviation piston engine industrialization; some products began to seize the domestic aircraft market, Open up the after-sales service market and further expand the Chinese aviation engine industry.
By 2025, the CJ-1000A commercial service; 1000kgf class turbofan, 1000kW class turboshaft and other key products completed airworthiness and evidence collection; 5000kW class turboprops and other completed model development. The first-class advanced large-scale civil turbofan engine developed independently was put into commercial service in China, and the Chinese aviation engine industry entered the world's first echelon.
The next major developments include: large bypass ratio large turbofan engines, medium/small turbofan/ turbojet engines, medium/high power turboshaft engines, high power turboprop engines, and aviation piston engines. In key components, we will focus on the development of advanced large bypass ratio fan systems, advanced high pressure ratio high pressure compressors, advanced low pollution combustion chambers, single crystal/ceramic composite high pressure turbine blades, advanced health management systems, and advanced high performance. Long life transmission system, advanced full authority digital electronic control system and other products.
In key common technologies, we will focus on: advanced overall design and verification technology, high efficiency and high stability margin compression system technology, high performance, low emission combustor technology, high load, high efficiency, long life turbine technology, advanced aero engine design /Test / comprehensive maintenance support technology, as well as aero-engine key parts remanufacturing technology.
The road map is clear. In terms of application demonstration, it is necessary to focus on the implementation of the five major projects. The first is the demonstration project of aero-engine integrated verification technology application. The second is the demonstration project of advanced materials and manufacturing applications for aerospace engines. The third is the commercial aviation engine operation demonstration project. The fourth is the demonstration project of the aviation engine intelligent production line. The fifth is the demonstration project for the remanufacturing of key components of aerospace engines.
In terms of strategic support and support, the roadmap suggests strengthening the top-level plan for aero-engine development and implementing major aero-engine special projects as soon as possible to lay the foundation for the strategic upgrade of the aero-engine industry. Increase the national strategic emerging industries to cultivate the aviation engine market, and create conditions for domestic aviation engines to participate in international competition through airworthiness certification of airworthiness authorities and international airworthiness bilateral agreements. The aviation engine intelligent innovation platform will be built, and an intelligent product design/manufacturing/test/service guarantee integration platform will be built to promote the development of the engine industry. Strengthen the airworthiness of aviation engines and the construction of a talent team, improve the airworthiness certification and verification capabilities, and increase the airworthiness certification organization and talent team to meet the development needs of the civil aviation engine industry. Strengthen the aviation basic technology investment and basic industrial construction, strengthen the general/basic technology engineering application development such as material manufacturing, and promote the independent innovation and development of aviation engines.
Implementation of national-level special plans for airborne equipment and systems
Aviation airborne equipment and systems and supporting industries include avionics, flight control and aerospace electromechanical systems, as well as aerospace materials and components. According to the road map, there are strong demand for aircraft airborne equipment and systems and supporting equipment for various types of aircraft and helicopters under research, production and in service at home and abroad. In the next 10 years, the output value of airborne equipment and systems supported by domestic dry and regional passenger aircraft will reach 800 billion yuan.
According to the goal set by the road map, by 2020, China will initially establish a three-level aviation equipment and system supporting system of “systems, equipment and devicesâ€; establish long-term, stable, high-quality and reliable aviation materials and components. System and complete industrial chain. By 2025, the market share of domestic dry and regional aircraft airborne products will be 30%; the market share of general aircraft airborne products will be 50%; several system level suppliers will be trained in key aviation airborne equipment and systems; And components are guaranteed by themselves.
In the next step, the products that need to be researched and developed include: avionics systems (including integrated processing and network systems, integrated navigation systems, cockpit display control systems, onboard maintenance systems, communication systems), flight control systems (including main flight control systems, high rise). Force system), electromechanical systems (including hydraulic systems, power systems, environmental control systems, auxiliary power systems, cabin equipment, freight systems). In the key components of aviation, we will focus on the development of display components, inertial devices, high-power power devices, aviation-specific sensors, intelligent skin MEMS.
In terms of key common technologies, we will focus on the development of avionics system overall design technology, integrated modular avionics system (IMA) technology, integrated flight control system technology, electromechanical system technology under multi-electric system, and non-propulsion energy system technology for civil aircraft.
The road map is clear, and will focus on three major application demonstration projects, such as aviation airborne equipment and system intelligent manufacturing demonstration project, aviation airborne system integration verification technology application demonstration project, aviation airborne equipment and system green manufacturing technology application demonstration project.
In terms of strategic support and support, it is recommended to set up national key equipment for airborne equipment and systems, increase investment, strengthen basic research and key technology advance research, realize technological leap-forward development, and comprehensively improve China's aviation airborne equipment and system technical capabilities. . Implement a national-level special plan for airborne equipment and systems. Through the implementation of special plans, the airworthiness certification of airborne equipment and systems will be strengthened, airborne systems that meet airworthiness regulations at home and abroad will be developed, and system-level suppliers will be cultivated to provide system-level shelf products for international and domestic civil aircraft.
Aerospace equipment industrialization reached the international advanced level
Space equipment mainly refers to space vehicles such as launch vehicles, satellites, spacecraft, deep space detectors, and related ground equipment. Space development is related to national strategic interests and security. Satellite applications have become an indispensable means of national innovation management, protection of resources and environment, provision of universal information services, and nurturing of emerging industries. In 2013, China's satellite application output value exceeded 100 billion yuan, and it is expected to be 2020. It will reach 500 billion yuan, nearly 1 trillion yuan in 2025.
Building a well-off society in an all-round way and building an innovative country have raised higher and broader needs for the development of advanced space equipment and the ability to enter space and explore and utilize space resources. According to the goal set by the road map, by 2020, a new generation of launch vehicle type spectrum will be formed, and the national civil space infrastructure with complete functions will be basically built to meet the main business needs of various fields in China, and the three steps of manned space flight and lunar exploration project will be completed. The task and spatial information application self-protection rate reached more than 60%, forming a relatively complete satellite and application industry chain.
By 2025, a high-efficiency, safe and adaptable space transportation system will be built, and the national civil space infrastructure with reasonable layout, global coverage and high-efficiency operation will form a long-term stable and efficient space application service system with interplanetary exploration capability and spatial information. The application self-protection rate reached 80%, and the industrialization development reached the international advanced level.
In order to achieve the above objectives, the next step will focus on R&D and promotion: launch vehicles, national civil space infrastructure, space broadband Internet, on-orbit maintenance and service systems, manned spaceflight and lunar exploration projects, deep space exploration and other key products and major Aerospace engineering.
In terms of key technologies, we will focus on "high-thrust rocket engines and heavy-duty launch vehicle technology, world-integrated systems and networking technologies, long-life, high-reliability, high-positioning precision advanced satellite platform technology, high-performance, new payload technology, Manned space and in-orbit maintenance and service key technologies, key technologies for deep space exploration, etc.
In the application of demonstration projects, the roadmap is clear, promoting satellite integrated application demonstration projects in the field of resource environment and ecological protection, disaster prevention and mitigation and emergency response satellite integrated application demonstration projects, urbanization, regional and interregional satellite integrated application demonstration projects, industry And the public application demonstration project, the remote area information Huimin satellite integrated application demonstration project and other five major projects.
In terms of strategic support and guarantee, the road map proposes to promote the formulation of space law, improve national space policy, data policy and aerospace product pricing mechanism, encourage social capital to enter satellite communication broadcasting and commercial satellite remote sensing, and support the development of autonomous satellite-based terminals. Products and applications. Promote aerospace digitalization, networking, and intelligence, and establish a digital, networked, and intelligent manufacturing integration system that adapts to the characteristics of multi-variety and small-volume products of aerospace products. Implement space autonomous controllable engineering, break through aerospace SoC/SiP, KW/MW high-power microwave components and new high-power terahertz devices, high-end MEMS devices and other aerospace-grade high-reliability components, high-performance carbon fiber materials, (super) Bottlenecks such as specifications of aluminum alloy materials, high-performance polymer fibers, and deformed high-temperature alloys, etc., enhance the autonomous support capabilities of aerospace products. Establish a "primary contractor-sub-contractor-supplier" division of labor and supply chain cooperation system, and establish an open and coordinated aerospace supply chain and industrial chain.
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